Odra Bank 3

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2034 is not credible.

The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2032 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.

Expected commercial operation 2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).