Hafrok

Baltic East

Located ~22.5 km north of Polish coastline near Choczewo, adjacent to Baltic Power. ~110 km2 area.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
BEBaltic East sp. z o.o. — 100% ◆
Location
Poland
Baltic Sea
Verification
11/15 fields verified
8 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred∅no source·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 900 MW ◆ Turbines — ◆
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) · 2025 ·
Water depth 25–40 m ◆ Distance from shore 22.5 km ◆ Wind speed 9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake CfD · 476.88 PLN/MWh ◆ Grid Applied ◆ Connection Preliminary grid connection conditions obtained from Polish TSO … ◆
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2032 ◆
COD · Hafrok 2032 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈83% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2031: 3.9% (conditional on completion) 2032: 50.2% (conditional on completion) 2033: 29.5% (conditional on completion) 2034: 10.6% (conditional on completion) 2035: 3.8% (conditional on completion) 2036: 1.4% (conditional on completion) 2037: 0.6% (conditional on completion)2026now20272028202920302031203250%20332034203520362037 Developer-announced COD: 2032 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2032
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20313.9%
2032 (expected)50.2%
203329.5%
203410.6%
20353.8%
20361.4%
20370.6%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2032, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈83%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2026’27’28’29’30’31’32Developer-announced COD: 2032 announced COD 2032View the source for Consent appliedConsent applied Nov 2025 ◆Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) — awarded to OrlenPoland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) Dec 2025 · auction recordCommercial operation 2032 ·Hafrok expectedPoland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) — awarded to Orlen 2025-12 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYOrlen Orlen Orlen not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedBaltic East sp. z o.o. — 100% today · operator Baltic East sp. z o.o. Baltic East sp. z o.o. 100%Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) — awarded to Orlen Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

900 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction)
Price476.88 PLN/MWh ·Capacity900 MWAwardedDec 2025
Term25 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2032
Construction ports
PortGdańsk T5 Terminal ~90km ∅

Sources & verification

11/15 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
Polish Energy Regulatory Office (URE)2025-12-19◆ Offshore: First auction for offshore win…
“ORLEN Neptun VIII Sp. z o.o. – Baltic East Offshore Wind Farm, with an installed electrical capacity of 900 MW”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
source ↗
[8]
Ministry of Justice (Poland), National Court Register (KRS)2026-08-22◆ KRS odpis aktualny 0000900596 - Baltic E…
“BALTIC EAST SPOLKA Z OGRANICZONA ODPOWIEDZIALNOSCIA (KRS 0000900596). Wspolnicy: ORLEN NEPTUN SPOLKA Z OGRANICZONA ODPOWIEDZIALNOSCIA (KRS 0000888254), 760 udzialow o lacznej wartosci 1.900.000,00 zl;…”
supportsoperator↳ parent
source ↗
Operator2
[2]
ORLEN2025-11-18
“ORLEN's second offshore wind farm moves a step closer — Baltic East secures environmental decision.”
supportsConsentStatusConnection pointWater depthDistance from shore+1 more
source ↗
[3]
ORLEN Neptun2026
“Installed capacity: 900–966 MW … several dozen offshore wind turbines with individual capacity of 14+ MW each … 22.5 kilometres offshore near Choczewo … water depth 25–40 m … foundation types: monopil…”
supportsCommercial operationUnit capacityTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shore
source ↗
Auction results1
[9]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase2-auction-2025-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction)
source ↗
Trade press3
[5]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-12-19◆ Poland Awards 3.4+ GW of Offshore Wind C…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
source ↗
[6]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
source ↗
[7]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗