San Miguel Bay
San Miguel Bay is a proposed ~901 MW (marketed "up to 1 GW") offshore wind project in the shallow, relatively typhoon-sheltered San Miguel Bay off Camarines Sur in the Bicol region of Luzon — positioned to become the first large-scale…
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
CIP — 75% ◇ACACEN — 25% ◇
Location
PhilippinesPhilippine Sea
Technology
Capacity
901 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2024-10 ◇
Water depth
31–45 m ≈
Wind speed
6.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2028 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2033 — 5 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈47%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: PH-GEA5-OFFSHORE
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2038 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈47%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Farmdown · 2025-05
CIP → ACEN Corporation 25%
- Stake
- 25%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2025-05
- Project stage
- early development
CIP (Growth Markets Fund II) agreed to sell a 25% stake in the ~901 MW San Miguel Bay project to ACEN Corporation (Ayala group), announced 29 May 2025, subject to regulatory approvals; deal value undisclosed. Reported completed by mid-2026 (no completion PR located). Surfaced by the CIP divestment sweep; the Philippines' first large-scale offshore wind project.
Evidence
- acenrenewables.com ↗
- offshorewind.biz ↗
- Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — Copenhagen infrastructure partners and acen to team up on the philippines first large scale offshore wind project ↗ 2025-05-29 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Green Energy Auction GEA-5 (offshore wind) ◇
NOA + TOR issued 25 Nov 2025 (Supplemental TOR 29 Jan 2026); Qualified-Supplier registration began 2 Mar 2026; ERC-approved GEAR reserve price PhP 11.00/kWh (23 Feb 2026); bids mid-2026, awards H2 2026.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028
Sources & verification
0/9 fields verified · rests on 6 sources (1 primary)
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[1]
Auction pipeline1
[9]
Department of Energy (Philippines)2026
DOE GEA-5 — first offshore-wind-only Green Energy Auction; NOA/TOR 25 Nov 2025; 3,300 MW fixed-bottom OSW; GEAR PhP 11.00/kWh; awards targeted H2 2026.
supportsGreen Energy Auction GEA-5 (offshore wind)
Trade press4
[4]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-06-29
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity
[6]
4C Offshore (TGS)2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[7]
[8]