Ten noorden van de Waddeneilanden I
Located north of the Wadden Islands, 56 km from coast of Groningen, adjacent to German EEZ border. Total site area ~120 km2.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
NetherlandsNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
700 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Doordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I) ∴
Water depth
35–36 m ≈
Distance from shore
56 km ◇
Wind speed
10.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
Applied ◇
Connection
TenneT 700 MW offshore platform planned in wind farm zone; … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈61%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2031 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: NL-IJMUIDEN-VER-GAMMA-A
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈61%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Announced COD: held (announced 2031, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No tender issued. Kavelbesluit in preparation; tender now deferred (possibly 2027 or later pending Doordewind merger decision). ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Doordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Sources & verification
0/14 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[1]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2025-09◆ Permit for Ten noorden van de Waddeneila…
“TNWWFS I will accommodate 700 MW of offshore wind capacity. The total surface area of TNWWFS I (including maintenance and safety zones) is approximately 111 km². Located 30.2 nautical miles (56 km) of…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatus+3 more
[4]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2025◆ RVO new offshore wind farms roadmap
“Ten noorden van de Waddeneilanden I (700 MW): tender procedure will take place in 2027. The wind farm will supply electricity from 2031 onwards.”
supportsCommercial operationCOD history
[8]
RVO — Bureau Energieprojecten (energietransitie.nl)2026-08-23◆ Dutch Bureau Energieprojecten register (…
“Listing row "Wind op zee - Ten noorden van de Waddeneilanden kavel I" (key wind-op-zee-ten-noorden-van-de-waddeneilanden-kavel-i); offshore docket page text hash 2d27c2584b68e49d… (5628 chars). Listin…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator1
[9]
Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland (energietransitie.nl)2026-09-08◆ Wind op zee - Windenergiegebied Ten noor…
“De minister van Klimaat en Groene Groei (KGG) en de minister van Volkshuisvesting en Ruimtelijke Ordening (VRO) hebben onlangs voor dit project een voorbereidingsbesluit genomen. Het voorbereidingsbes…”
supportsStatus note
Auction pipeline1
[10]
RVO2026◆ rvo-roadmap-2026
RVO roadmap — Doordewind I/II, HKW VIII, North of the Wadden Islands I planned; Lagelander removed ("no wind farms will be developed").
supportsDoordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I)
Trade press5
[2]
offshoreWIND.biz2023-03-20
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[3]
Offshore Energy2022
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[5]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[6]
[7]