OranjeWind (Hollandse Kust West Site VII)

TotalEnergies will use its share of power for 350 MW electrolyser producing ~40,000 tonnes/year green hydrogen for European refineries.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2028: 86.7% (conditional on completion) 2029: 13.3% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202887%2029 Developer-announced COD: 2028 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2028developer cod guidance2024-07 → 2026-09: the developer guided 2028 in 4 statements — sources [5] [9] [10] [14] — click for the sources2026-092028 · held since 2024-07 (×4) [5,9,10,14]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
2028 (expected)86.7%
202913.3%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-09-012028 (held since 2024-07-24, 4 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2029.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2022’23’24’25’26’27’28Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted 26 Nov 2021 Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Oranje Wind Power II B.V. (RWE; later TotalEnergies co-owner)Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII Dec 2022 · auction recordView the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision Jul 2024 View the source for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Mar 2026 Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expectedHollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Oranje Wind Power II B.V. (RWE; later TotalEnergies co-owner) 2022-12 ORIGINATIONNo origination on record — who held the site before the first recorded deal is not known; shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDRWE → TotalEnergies — 50% 2024-07 FARMDOWNTODAYRWE — 50% today · operator RWE RWE 50%TotalEnergies — 50% today TotalEnergies TotalEnergies 50%RWE → TotalEnergies — 50% 50%
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2028, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations0 of 530% · first seen —
Turbinesnone yet0 of 53
Latest count2026-08-30from 233 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (53 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
204054 planned (turbines and platforms)latest count 2026-08-30foundations — running total, confirmedAug 2026 — 1 this month · 1 in totalturbines up — running total, confirmedAug 2026 — 0 this month · 0 in total1 foundations0 turbines upAug 2026
Satellite image
Image taken2026-09-05Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass
Farm covered100%the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed1 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmedas counted on 2026-08-30 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Construction ports
PortBuss Terminal Eemshaven ·turbines · quay 5000 m · crane 50 t · draft 14 m
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-05
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (1)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Satellite radar image over OranjeWind (Hollandse Kust West Site VII), 2026-09-05
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationHollandse Kust (west Beta)·planning · owner TenneT

Sources & verification

16/19 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (11 primary) · ◆ 12 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[2]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2021-06◆ Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone - P…
“Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone (HKWWFZ) is located approximately 28.6 nautical miles (53 km) off the west coast of the Netherlands.”
supportsDistance from shoreCoordinates
[3]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2022-12◆ RVO Hollandse Kust West VI & VII results
“On 10 November 2022, Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten announced that the permit for Wind Farm Site VII of the Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone has been awarded to Oranje Wind Power II, a…”
supportsConsentMechanismDetailConsent granted
Operator8
[1]
Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy2021-11-26◆ Kavelbesluit VII windenergiegebied Holla…
“Kavel VII in windenergiegebied Hollandse Kust (west) wordt aangewezen als locatie voor een windpark met een totaal geïnstalleerd vermogen van minimaal 693 MW.”
supportsConsentFoundationConsent granted
[4]
RWE AG2022-11-10◆ Hollandse Kust West VII: RWE successful …
“RWE wins Dutch support-free offshore wind tender: The company has received the permit to build a large-scale offshore wind farm – Hollandse Kust West (HKW) VII. The site is located in the North Sea, a…”
supportsBackground
[5]
RWE AG2024-07-24◆ TotalEnergies and RWE join forces to imp…
“RWE and TotalEnergies have also taken the investment decision to build the OranjeWind offshore wind farm, which will have an installed capacity of 795 megawatts (MW). [...] Each partner has 50% stake …”
supportsFinal investment decisionTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity+4 more
[7]
RWE AG2023-09-12◆ RWE and TenneT sign agreements for conne…
“Network operator TenneT and energy company RWE have signed agreements for an offshore grid connection of OranjeWind, a wind farm to be built 53 kilometres off the Dutch coast. The Connection & Transmi…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[8]
RWE AG2024-12-10◆ RWE and TotalEnergies choose Eemshaven a…
“RWE and TotalEnergies have selected the port of Eemshaven in the northern Dutch province of Groningen as the base for turbine assembly and construction work for their joint offshore wind project Oranj…”
supportsturbines
[11]
RWE2024-07◆ TotalEnergies and RWE join forces to imp…
supportsoperatorowner
[14]
RWE2026-09-01◆ First monopile successfully installed at…
“The OranjeWind project has successfully installed the first monopile in the Dutch North Sea. ... Installation of all 53 monopiles is expected to be completed by early 2027. ... The monopile was loaded…”
supportsCOD history
[15]
Sif2026-09-01◆ First load-out for OranjeWind
“the first monopile has been loaded out from Sif’s Maasvlakte terminal. Sif is supplying 53 TP-less (transition piece-less) monopiles for OranjeWind, a joint venture between RWE and TotalEnergies.”
supportsBackground
OEM1
[6]
Vestas2024-07-29◆ Vestas secures 795 MW order for the Oran…
“Vestas has received a firm wind turbine order for the OranjeWind offshore wind farm, formerly known as Hollandse Kust West VII, in the Netherlands. Vestas will be supplying 53 V236-15.0 MW wind turbin…”
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity
Trade press3
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-03-30◆ Seabed Preparation Starts Ahead of Const…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOffshore constructionCommercial operation
[12]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[13]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed