Nederwiek III
Northern part of Nederwiek wind energy zone. 2 GW capacity. TenneT 2 GW HVDC platform planned. Part of broader 6 GW Nederwiek zone.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
NetherlandsNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Nederwiek I-B / II / III (bundled) ∴
Water depth
30–40 m ◇
Distance from shore
95 km ◇
Wind speed
10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
TenneT Net op zee Nederwiek 3 (HVDC platform; ~2 GW planned) ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈55%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: NL-IJMUIDEN-VER-GAMMA-A
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈55%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Tender procedure not yet opened; Netherlands government selecting procedure in Q2 2026 ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 2
HVDC systemNederwiek 3·2000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2031
HVDC systemLionLink UK Converter (Saxmundham)·2000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2032
Export & onshore
Export cableNederwiek 3 Export Cable (+ LionLink NL side)·HVDC subsea · NKT · planned · to Geertruidenberg or Moerdijk, Noord-Brabant
Export cableLionLink Cable (UK section)·HVDC subsea · planned · to Saxmundham, Suffolk
Onshore connectionGeertruidenberg Converter Station (Nederwiek 3)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · planning
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Nederwiek 3 · TBD (Hitachi Energy / L&T consortium) · for TenneT
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
0/14 fields verified · rests on 7 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[3]
RVO (Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland)2026-04-02◆ Wind op zee - Nederwiek (noord) kavels I…
“A preparatory decision (voorbereidingsbesluit) was published on April 2, 2026, preventing conflicting developments in the area. The final kavelbesluit has not yet been published. The current status is…”
supportsConsent
[6]
RVO — Bureau Energieprojecten (energietransitie.nl)2026-08-23◆ Dutch Bureau Energieprojecten register (…
“Listing row "Wind op zee - Nederwiek (noord) kavels II en III" (key wind-op-zee-nederwiek-noord-kavels-ii-en-iii); offshore docket page text hash 64b15d53eb6c0c9f… (5872 chars). Listing row "Net op ze…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[7]
RVO2026◆ rvo-roadmap-2026
RVO roadmap — Nederwiek I-B grouped with Nederwiek II + III after the I-A failure; no firm tender year.
supportsNederwiek I-B / II / III (bundled)
Trade press4
[1]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-01-30◆ Netherlands Consulting Developers on 202…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationMechanismDetailWater depthDistance from shore+1 more
[2]
Offshore Wind Biz2022-06-13◆ The Netherlands Sets Tendering Timelines…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[4]
[5]