Curonian Nord
Curonian Nord is Lithuania's first offshore wind farm — the 700 MW "Site 1" won in the country's inaugural seabed tender (confirmed by NERC 12 Oct 2023, subsidy-free, on the highest development fee of EUR 20m; see auction round…
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
IGIgnitis Renewables — 100% ◆
Location
LithuaniaBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
700 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Lithuania offshore Site 1 ("Curonian Nord") · 2023 ·
Water depth
28–48 m ◇
Distance from shore
36 km ◇
Wind speed
9.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2033 — 3 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈54%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2038 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈54%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2023-10
Lithuania offshore Site 1 ("Curonian Nord")
- Awarded to
- Ignitis Renewables + Ocean Winds (EDPR/ENGIE)
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Lithuania offshore Site 2 — re-tender (undecided) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
1/10 fields verified · rests on 5 sources · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[6]
LRT (Lithuania)2025-10
Lithuania's second offshore wind tender declared void with only one bid (Ignitis); the government will decide on a re-run after EC consultations — no date or revised parameters set.
supportsLithuania offshore Site 2 — re-tender (undecided)
Trade press4
[1]
reNEWS2025-10
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shore
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-10◆ Ignitis to Become Sole Owner of Lithuani…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[4]
[5]