Hafrok

Southwest Offshore Wind Phase 2

Adjacent to Southwest Demo (60 MW, operational). Located in Yellow Sea off South Jeolla.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
KOKorea Offshore Wind Power — 100% ◇
Location
South Korea
Yellow Sea
Verification
2/10 fields verified
7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced○unverified·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 400 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ◆ Water depth 11–16 m ≈ Wind speed 7.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake Other ◆
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2028 ○
COD · Hafrok 2031 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2031
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2031 — 3 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈74% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2030: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2031: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2032: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2033: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2034: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2036: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2037: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2038: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now20282030203128%EXPECTED2032203420362038 Developer-announced COD: 2028 ANNOUNCED 2028
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203014.1%
2031 (expected)28.0%
203222.7%
203314.6%
20348.7%
20355.1%
20363.1%
20371.8%
20381.1%
20390.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2031, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈74%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28’29’30’31Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028Commercial operation 2031 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

400 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity400 MWAwardedSep 2025
Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028

Sources & verification

2/10 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction results1
[7]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2025h1-offshore-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
source ↗
Trade press5
[2]
NS Energy2025-04
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
source ↗
[3]
GEM2026
supportsTotal capacityCoordinates
source ↗
[4]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[5]
4C Offshore2026◆ Southwest Offshore - phase 2 Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsMechanismDetail
source ↗
[6]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates
source ↗