Shinan-Ui Offshore Wind Farm
Part of the 8.2 GW Shinan offshore wind cluster ambition. Located in the Yellow Sea off Jeonnam province.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
MFMirae Energy Fund — 40% ◆
HOHanwha Ocean — 26.3% ◆
KMKorea Midland Power (KOMIPO) — 18.9% ◆
SESK Eternix — 10% ◆
HEHyundai Engineering and Construction — 4.8% ◆
Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
390 MW ◆
Turbines
26 × 15 MW ◆
Model
Vestas V236 15-0 ◆
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Water depth
9–35 m ≈
Wind speed
8.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Apr 2026 ◇
COD · announced
2029 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2029 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2029
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 (expected) | 86.7% |
| 2030 | 13.3% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2029, likely range 2028–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
390 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2023 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — offshore carve-out
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity390 MWAwardedDec 2023Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations0 of 26≈0% · first seen —
Turbinesnone yet≈0 of 26
Latest count2026-08-31from 21 satellite passes · 0 substation platforms left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Satellite image
Image taken2026-09-06≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass
Farm covered100%≈the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed0 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-31 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-06
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (0)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Sources & verification
6/15 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[2]
Korea Energy Agency (KNREC)2023-12◆ 2023 Wind RPS fixed-price auction select…
“Offshore 8 sites 2,067MW applied, 5 sites 1,431MW selected (results per individual plant login)”
supportsMechanismDetail
[5]
Financial Services Commission (FSC), South Korea2026-04-09◆ 보도자료 - 위원회 소식 - 알림마당 - 금융위원회
“Financial consortium for Shinan-Ui Offshore Wind Power Project has been completed. Total project cost KRW 3.4 trillion, loan KRW 2.89 trillion.”
supportsFinal investment decision
OEM1
[4]
Vestas2025-12-29◆ Vestas secures 390 MW offshore order in …
“Vestas has received a 390 MW order for the Shinan-Ui offshore wind project in Jeollanam Province, South Korea. The project is developed by Shinan-Ui Offshore Wind, a consortium consisting of Hanwha Oc…”
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity
Auction results1
[16]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2023-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2023 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — offshore carve-out
Trade press10
[3]
Electric Power Journal (EPJ)2023-12-20◆ 2023 wind fixed-price auction - offshore…
“5 offshore wind projects 1,431MW selected ... Shinan-Ui offshore wind (390MW)”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[6]
KukiNews / Daum2026-04-09
“Mirae Energy Fund (40%), SK Eternix (10%), Hanwha Ocean (26.3%), Hyundai E&C (4.8%), KOMIPO (18.9%) participating as equity investors ... long-term REC supply contract with Korea South-East Power (KOS…”
supportsMechanismDetail
[7]
Daum / trade press (KOMIPO announcement)2026-04-09
“Largest domestic offshore wind PF concluded ... KOMIPO, commercial operation 2029.”
supportsCommercial operation
[8]
Daehan Economy2026-04
“나머지 40%는 재무적투자자(FI)를 유치해 채운다는 구상이다. FI로는 미래에너지펀드가 확정적이다.”
supportsfinancial_investordeveloperoperator
[9]
[10]
[12]
Money Today Network (MTN)2026-06-24
“바다 지반에 말뚝을 박는 파일 설치 단계로, 이 작업은 내년 5월까지 진행된다 (currently in the seabed pile-driving stage; this work continues through May 2027) — investigative ('exclusive') piece on Mokpo port infrastructure readines…”
supportsConsentOffshore constructionSite rights
[13]
Seoul Shinmun2026-04-16
“이를 바탕으로 이달 중 본공사에 들어간다 (based on the completed financing, main construction begins this month [April 2026])”
supportsOffshore constructionSite rights
[14]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-04-09
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFinal investment decision
[15]
Unverified import1
[1]