Gulupdo Phase 1 Offshore Wind Farm
A 250 MW fixed-bottom project in the waters off Gulup Island, Ongjin-gun, Incheon - the first phase of a larger Gulupdo development.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
250 MW ◆
Turbines
— ◇
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2023-12 ◇
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◆
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2031 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2031
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 14.1% |
| 2031 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2032 | 22.7% |
| 2033 | 14.6% |
| 2034 | 8.7% |
| 2035 | 5.1% |
| 2036 | 3.1% |
| 2037 | 1.8% |
| 2038 | 1.1% |
| 2039 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2031, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
250 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2026 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (fixed-bottom general + public-led + floating)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity250 MWAwardedJun 2026Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
4/8 fields verified · rests on 8 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[1]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE)2026-06-30◆ '26년 상반기 해상풍력 입찰 결과 5개 사업 1,786MW 선정
“「2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과, 총 3,656MW, 9개 사업이 응찰해 5개 사업, 1,786MW가 최종 선정되었다.」 (9 projects / 3,656 MW bid; 5 projects / 1,786 MW selected.) NB the release states TOTALS only - it names no project an…”
supportsMechanismDetail
[5]
금융감독원 전자공시시스템 (DART) / SK이터닉스2026-08-13
“II-7 기타 참고사항: 「인천 굴업도 1단계(250MW), 2단계(500MW) 해상풍력 발전사업 등 총 1,140MW를 개발 중에 있습니다.」 XII-3 타법인출자 현황, 기준일 2026.06.30, row 굴업풍력개발㈜: 최초취득일자 2024.06.28, 기말 수량 120,000주, 지분율 30. (Gulup Wind Development Co., Lt…”
supportssponsorTotal capacity
Auction results1
[9]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE), via 대한민국 정책브리핑 (korea.kr)2026-06-30◆ kr-2026h1-mcee-result
"2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과, 총 3,656MW, 9개 사업이 응찰해 5개 사업, 1,786MW가 최종 선정되었다. 기후에너지환경부(장관 김성환)는 6월 30일 한국에너지공단이 2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과를 확정하고, 입찰 사업자에게 개별 통보했다고 밝혔다. … 고정식 해상풍력은 총 1,254MW가 선정되…
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2026 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (fixed-bottom general + public-led + floating)
Trade press5
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-07-02◆ Cip secures 1 gw across two projects in …
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityFoundation
[4]
아시아경제 (Asia Economy)2026-06-30
“「굴업도해상풍력(250MW), 한빛해상풍력(340MW), 해송3해상풍력(504MW) 등 3개 사업자 총 1094㎿가 선정됐다. … 굴업도해상풍력은 씨앤아이레저산업, SK이터닉스, 대우건설이 참여하고 있으며 두산에너빌리티의 10㎿ 터빈을 사용할 계획이다.」 (Gulupdo Offshore Wind has C&I Leisure Industry, SK Etern…”
supportsdevelopersponsorUnit capacity
[6]
인천투데이 (Incheon Today)2024-01-12
“「굴업풍력개발(주)는 12일 굴업도 해상풍력 발전사업 환경영향평가 초안을 지난해 12월 한강유역환경청에 제출했다고 밝혔다.」 「2020년 9월 산업통상자원부로부터 발전사업허가를 받았다. 이어 2021년 12월 굴업풍력개발이 발전허가를 양도받았다.」 「향후 굴업풍력개발은 환경영향평가 협의를 완료 후, 공유수면 점·사용 허가와 실시계획 승인, 발전설비 공사계획…”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[7]
인천투데이 (Incheon Today)2024-09-11
“「굴업풍력개발(주)는 2020년 9월 인천에서 처음으로 233.5MW 규모의 발전사업허가를 받았으며, 이를 256MW로 상향해 환경영향평가를 진행 중이다.」”
supportsBackground
[8]
일렉트릭파워 (Electric Power Journal)2026-05
“「올해 상반기 풍력 경쟁입찰에 참여한 일반 고정식해상풍력 프로젝트는 ▲해송1해상풍력(504MW) ▲해송3해상풍력(504MW) ▲한빛해상풍력(340MW) ▲굴업도해상풍력(250MW) 4개로 총 1,598MW 규모다.」 Also records that Gulupdo switched from a Vestas 15 MW to a Doosan 10 MW before…”
supportsBackground