Gray Whale Phase 3 (BadaEnergy)
Same BadaEnergy JV as Phase 1 and 2.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
South KoreaSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
495 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◇
Water depth
134–150 m ≈
Wind speed
8.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◇
Connection
KEPCO Ulsan transmission grid ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2029 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2029; Hafrok expects 2035 — 6 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈56%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2035 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: KR-OFFSHORE-2026H2
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2035–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No offtake contract identified. KEPCO E&C FEED contract for onshore substation and cable route design confirmed (grid engineering work, not a power purchase agreement). ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
South Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction ◇
MCEE's ten-year roadmap (2026-06-30) schedules 1.7-3.0 GW for 2026 H2 — fixed 1.3-2.0 GW, floating 0.4-1.0 GW. No 공고 date published as of 2026-08-26; the ministry began collecting military-operability consultation requests for H2 bidders from April 2026.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2029
Sources & verification
0/12 fields verified · rests on 8 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[8]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE), via 대한민국 정책브리핑 (korea.kr)2026-06-30◆ kr-mcee-roadmap-2026
Roadmap table, 2026 H2 column: 경쟁입찰 물량 1.7~3.0 GW (고정식 1.3~2.0, 부유식 0.4~1.0). "RPS 제도 일몰('27.1.1.)에 따라 '27년 이후 입찰에 대한 세부 운영 방식 및 선정 프로세스 구체화 필요 ('26년 하반기 중)."
supportsSouth Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction
Trade press6
[2]
offshoreWIND.biz2022-09-06◆ SK Ecoplant Joins Corio and TotalEnergie…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorownerStatusConnection point
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-07-22◆ BadaEnergy Wraps Up EIA Consultation for…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentCommercial operationSite rightsDetailOfftake history
[4]
DORIS Group2024-01-01
“Gray Whale 3 is being developed by BadaEnergy, a joint venture between Corio Generation, TotalEnergies and SK ecoplant, with a capacity of 504 MW, making it one of the largest floating offshore wind d…”
supportsTotal capacity
[5]
[6]
[7]
Unverified import1
[1]