Gray Whale Phase 1 (BadaEnergy)
Corio, TotalEnergies, and SK Ecoplant form BadaEnergy JV. Korea's leading floating wind programme alongside Bandibuli and Haewoori.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
South KoreaSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
510 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◇
Water depth
137–152 m ≈
Wind speed
8.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured · 2024-10 ◇
Connection
KEPCO Ulsan transmission grid (345 kV) ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ○
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2035 — 5 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈54%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2035 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: KR-OFFSHORE-2026H2
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2035–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈54%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
JV formation · 2020-09
TotalEnergies · Green Investment Group stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2020-09
- Closed
- 2020-Q4
- Project stage
- early development
On 1 September 2020, TotalEnergies (then Total) and Macquarie's Green Investment Group (GIG) announced a 50/50 partnership to develop a portfolio of five large floating offshore wind projects in South Korea with a combined gross capacity of over 2.3 GW. The portfolio comprises three projects in Ulsan (Gray Whale 1, 2, and 3, totalling 1.5 GW) and two projects in South Jeolla Province (totalling ~800 MW). The partnership became effective in autumn 2020 subject to regulatory approvals. GIG subsequently rebranded as Corio Generation (December 2022) following its acquisition by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners' related network; TotalEnergies remained 50% partner. This record covers the GW1 (Gray Whale 1, ~504 MW) tranche; companion records cover GW2 and GW3 under Gray Whale Phase 2 and Phase 3 project names. In July 2021, GIG and TotalEnergies received the first Electricity Business Licence (EBL) for Korea's first floating offshore wind farm (504 MW phase). Gray Whale Phase 1 capacity at this time was 504 MW; later adjusted to 500 MW.
Evidence
- totalenergies.com — Total and Macquarie Partner to Develop 2GW Floating Offshore ↗ 2020-09 ◆ held
- businesswire.com ↗
- greeninvestmentgroup.com — GIG & TotalEnergies Obtain EBL for Korea’s First Floating Offshore Wind Farm ↗ 2020-09 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Total Enters South Korean Floating Wind Market ↗ 2020-09 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
JV entry · 2022-09
SK ecoplant stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2022-09
- Project stage
- early development
In September 2022, Corio Generation (formerly GIG) and TotalEnergies announced that SK ecoplant (a subsidiary of SK Group, South Korea's leading construction and environmental services company) had joined their BadaEnergy offshore wind portfolio in South Korea. SK ecoplant acquired an unspecified stake in the portfolio, which includes the 1.5 GW Gray Whale floating wind development (GW1, GW2, GW3 in Ulsan) and the broader Jeonnam fixed-bottom portfolio (totalling ~2.6 GW gross). The BadaEnergy entity was established as a three-way JV between Corio Generation, TotalEnergies, and SK ecoplant. This is a portfolio-level JV entry covering all BadaEnergy projects.
Evidence
- coriogeneration.com — South Korea: Corio and TotalEnergies welcome SK ecoplant to portfolio ↗ 2022-09 ◆ held
- offshorewind.biz — SK Ecoplant Joins Corio and TotalEnergies on South Korean Offshore Wind Projects ↗ ◆ held
- realassets.ipe.com — SK ecoplant invests in TotalEnergies and Corio’s BadaEnergy portfolio - News ↗ 2022-09 ◆ held
- enerdata.net — Corio, TotalEnergies and SK Ecoplant partner for 2.6 GW of offshore wind (SK) ↗ 2022-09 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No offtake agreement identified for Gray Whale Phase 1. Korea's RPS regime (REC fixed-price auctions via MOTIE/KNREC) is the likely intended route to market, but no auction award has been reported for this project. The October 2024 TSA with KEPCO is a transmission/grid agreement, not offtake. BadaEnergy is reported to be in liquidation as of 2025-2026. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
South Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction ◇
MCEE's ten-year roadmap (2026-06-30) schedules 1.7-3.0 GW for 2026 H2 — fixed 1.3-2.0 GW, floating 0.4-1.0 GW. No 공고 date published as of 2026-08-26; the ministry began collecting military-operability consultation requests for H2 bidders from April 2026.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
0/12 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[10]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE), via 대한민국 정책브리핑 (korea.kr)2026-06-30◆ kr-mcee-roadmap-2026
Roadmap table, 2026 H2 column: 경쟁입찰 물량 1.7~3.0 GW (고정식 1.3~2.0, 부유식 0.4~1.0). "RPS 제도 일몰('27.1.1.)에 따라 '27년 이후 입찰에 대한 세부 운영 방식 및 선정 프로세스 구체화 필요 ('26년 하반기 중)."
supportsSouth Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction
Trade press5
[3]
Offshore Wind (Navingo)2024-10◆ Three More Floating Offshore Wind Projec…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsDetailStatusConnection pointOfftake history
[4]
Offshore Wind (Navingo)2024-07◆ BadaEnergy Wraps Up EIA Consultation for…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatordeveloperConsentSite rights
[7]
[8]
[9]
Unverified import1
[1]