Dadaepo Offshore Wind Farm

Located near Dadaepo/Busan area. KOSPO is Korea Southern Power, a state-owned utility.

Status

Early Developmentlifecycle stage

ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

KSKorea Southern Power — 50% ◆

CGCorio Generation — 50% ◆

Location

South Korea

Sea of Japan (East Sea)

Verification

2/11 fields verified

10 sources · ◆ 3 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced○unverified·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 99 MW ◇ Turbines — ◇

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Application filed 2020-07 ◆ Water depth 30–41 m ≈ Wind speed 7.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Other ◇

Grid —

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced 2028 ○

COD · Hafrok 2034 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2034

expected year of commercial operation

The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2034 — 6 years later.

Chance of delivery

≈60% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2033	14.1%
2034 (expected)	28.0%
2035	22.7%
2036	14.6%
2037	8.7%
2038	5.1%
2039	3.1%
2040	1.8%
2041	1.1%
2042	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2034 is not credible.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈60%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).