Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind (Round 3)
Sea of Japan off Yamagata. bp's first Round 3 offshore wind success in Japan. Marubeni-led consortium.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
YYYamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC — 100% ◇
Location
JapanSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
450 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2024 ·
Water depth
8–41 m ≈
Wind speed
7.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Premium · 3 JPY_per_kWh ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
Jun 2030 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈77%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈77%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2024-12
Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
- Awarded to
- Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC — Marubeni / Kansai EPCO / bp / Tokyo Gas / Marutaka
- Basis
- integrated tender
Founding JV · 2024-12
Marubeni Corporation · Kansai Electric Power Co. · BP · Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. · Marutaka Co. Ltd. — On 24 December 2024, METI and MLIT announced that the Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC consortium — comprising Marubeni Corporation, Kansai Electric Power Co., BP, Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., and Marutaka Co. Ltd. — was selected as the winner of the Round 3 auction for the "Yuza, Yamagata" sea area off the coast of Yuza Town, Yamagata Prefecture. Planned capacity: 450 MW (30 × 15 MW Siemens Gamesa fixed-bottom turbines). Committed COD: 30 June 2030. Bid price: JPY 3/kWh. This marks BP's entry into Japan's offshore wind auction framework (BP has offshore wind development experience in UK, US, Korea, and is part of the JERA Nex bp JV). Four consortia bid for this area; the winning consortium prevailed on local benefit commitments as the bid price and COD were equal across bidders.
Evidence
- marubeni.com — Appointment of Operator for the Offshore Wind Power Project off the Coast of Yuza Town, Yamagata Prefecture, Japan ↗ ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Japan Awards Offshore Wind Sites to JERA-Led Consortium & BP and Partners ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- renews.biz — BP bags 450MW site in Japan offshore auction ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- deepwind.jp — Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind｜450MW Project Fixed-Bottom Project Overview ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- wfw.com — Japan’s offshore wind ’Round 3’ auction results and proposed changes to the Operational Auction Guidelines - Watson Farley & Williams ↗ ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
450 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
Price3 JPY/kWh ·Capacity450 MWAwardedDec 2024Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030-06
Sources & verification
1/11 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction results1
[10]
Aquilo Energy / EEAS2026-06-22◆ jp-round3-2024-jp-tenders-study
Japanese offshore-wind tenders study: 30-yr occupancy permit, scheduled operation <=8 years after Occupancy Plan certification
supportsTender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
Trade press7
[2]
Marubeni Corporation2024-12-24◆ Appointment of Operator for the Offshore…
“Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC was officially appointed as operator for the offshore wind power project off the coast of Yuza Town, Yamagata Prefecture. The Project involves the construction, mainten…”
supportsspv↳ parentsTotal capacityMechanismStrike / price+1 more
[3]
Watson Farley & Williams2024-12◆ Japan’s offshore wind ’Round 3’ auction …
“Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC (Marubeni, Kansai Electric, BP, Tokyo Gas and Marutaka) for the Yuza, Yamagata project (450 MW). The selected proposal offered JPY 3/kWh with a committed commercial ope…”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity
[4]
DeepWind2025-03
“Yamagata Yuza Offshore Wind LLC with five consortium members: Marubeni Corporation, Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., BP Iota Holdings Limited, Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd., and Marutaka Co., Ltd. Capacity: 450…”
supportsTotal capacity
[5]
DLA Piper2024
“Winning the auction does NOT automatically grant all necessary consents. Winners must obtain: formal business plan approval from METI/MLIT, Renewable Energy Approval under the Renewable Energy Act, Oc…”
supportsConsentConsent applied
[6]
[7]
[8]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates