Saikai Enoshima Offshore Wind (Round 2)

Located in the East China Sea off Nagasaki Prefecture. Sumitomo/TEPCO partnership.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

MEMiraie Enoshima G.K. — 100% ◆

Location

Japan

East China Sea

Verification

2/12 fields verified

10 sources · ◆ 2 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 420 MW ◇

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2023 ·

Water depth 8–20 m ≈ Wind speed 7.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Premium · 22.18 JPY_per_kWh ◇ Grid Not recorded ◇ Connection Kyushu Electric Power grid (Nagasaki) ◇

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced Aug 2029 ◇

COD · Hafrok 2029 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈81% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2028	3.9%
2029 (expected)	50.2%
2030	29.5%
2031	10.6%
2032	3.8%
2033	1.4%
2034	0.6%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈81%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

420 MW contracted — tender award

● Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation)

Price22.18 JPY/kWh ·Capacity420 MW AwardedDec 2023

Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageAdvanced Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2029-08

Sources & verification

2/12 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 2 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Auction results1

[11]

Aquilo Energy / EEAS2026-06-22◆ jp-round2-2023-jp-tenders-study

Japanese offshore-wind tenders study: 30-yr occupancy permit, scheduled operation <=8 years after Occupancy Plan certification

supportsTender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation)

source ↗

Trade press8

[2]

Sumitomo Corporation2023-12-13

“Sumitomo Corporation … has received notification that our Consortium … has been appointed to design, build and operate an offshore wind project in the sea area off the coast of Enoshima Island, Saikai…”

supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity

source ↗

[3]

Shulman Advisory2023-12

“For Saikai-Enoshima: bid price 22.18 yen/kWh. The auction was subject to the Feed-in Premium (FIP) regime with an upper limit of 29 yen/kWh … The winner was Sumitomo Corporation and TEPCO Renewable Po…”

supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail

source ↗

[4]

DeepWind (third-party aggregator)2026-05-26

“SPV Name: Miraie Enoshima G.K. (みらいえのしま合同会社) … Stakeholders: Sumitomo Corporation; TEPCO Renewable Power … Draft EIA Statement (準備書) — Last updated May 26, 2026 … 5th Statutory Council Meeting: Februa…”

supportsConsentStatusConnection point

source ↗

[5]

Sumitomo Corp2023◆ Appointed as Operators of Offshore Wind …

supportsoperator

source ↗

[6]

DeepWind (Nagasaki Saikai Enoshima project)2025

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

[7]

Global Energy Monitor (GEM.wiki)2026-07-02