Oga Katagami Akita Offshore Wind (Round 2)

Located in the Sea of Japan off Oga Peninsula, Akita. Fixed-bottom monopile in ~20-40 m depth. Final deposits paid confirming Round 2 award.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

OKOga Katagami Akita Offshore Green Energy LLC — 100% ◇

Location

Japan

Sea of Japan (East Sea)

Verification

2/12 fields verified

12 sources · ◆ 6 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 315 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2023 ·

Water depth 7–27 m ≈ Wind speed 7.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Premium · 3 JPY_per_kWh ◇ Grid Not recorded ◇ Connection Akita Substation, Tohoku Electric Power grid ◇

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced Jun 2028 ◇

COD · Hafrok 2031 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2031

expected year of commercial operation

The developer says 2028-06; Hafrok expects 2031 — 3 years later.

Chance of delivery

≈77% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2030	14.1%
2031 (expected)	28.0%
2032	22.7%
2033	14.6%
2034	8.7%
2035	5.1%
2036	3.1%
2037	1.8%
2038	1.1%
2039	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2031, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈77%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

315 MW contracted — tender award

● Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation)

Price3 JPY/kWh ·Capacity315 MW AwardedDec 2023

Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageAdvanced Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2028-06

Installation contracts

Turbinesvessel not yet named◇Contracted

Sources & verification

2/12 fields verified · rests on 12 sources · ◆ 6 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Operator1

[7]

Oga Katagami Akita Offshore Green Energy LLC (project operator website)2024-02◆ Company Overview | Oga Katagami Akita Of…

“JERA Nex bp Japan GK … Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. … Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. … ITOCHU Corp. … Establishment Date: February 2, 2024”

supportsoperator↳ parents

source ↗

OEM1

[5]

Vestas Wind Systems2024-12◆ Vestas wins 315 MW offshore order in Jap…

“Vestas has received a 315 MW order ... our first firm order for a project to be developed under the Japanese government's offshore wind auctions. ... 21 V236-15.0 MW ... Delivery of the turbines is ex…”

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

Auction results1

[11]

Aquilo Energy / EEAS2026-06-22◆ jp-round2-2023-jp-tenders-study

Japanese offshore-wind tenders study: 30-yr occupancy permit, scheduled operation <=8 years after Occupancy Plan certification

supportsTender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation)

source ↗

Record source1

[12]

DEME Group2026-05-29◆ deme-oga-katagami-akita-2026-05

Through its Japanese joint venture Japan Offshore Marine (JOM), DEME has secured a contract for the Oga-Katagami-Akita Offshore Wind Project. The contract covers the engineering works and vessel chart…

supportsVessel — turbine installation

source ↗

Trade press7

[2]

Sustainable Japan2023-12-17◆ 【日本】経産省と国交省、洋上風力事業者選定ラウンド2結果発表。3区域とも最低価格…

“男鹿・潟上・秋田Offshore Green Energyコンソーシアム（JERA、電源開発、伊藤忠商事、東北電力）… 発電設備出力：31.5万kW（着床式/1.5万kW×21基/Vestas製）、運転開始時期：2028年6月（予定）”

supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity

source ↗

[3]

Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP2023-12

“all three applicants for the offshore areas of Oga City, Katagami City and Akita City bid at 3 yen/kWh … the FIP period is 20 years”

supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail

source ↗

[4]

Offshore Wind Biz2023-12-13

Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

[6]

DeepWind (Japan offshore wind intelligence)2025-09-24◆ Akita Oga Katagami Akita City Offshore W…

“The project remains in the Environmental Impact Assessment phase, currently at the 'draft report' stage as of September 24, 2025. Construction Start: March 2026. Commercial Operation Date: June 2028.”

supportsConsentCommercial operationStatusConnection pointConsent applied

source ↗

[8]

Global Energy Monitor (GEM.wiki)2026-07-02

supportsCoordinates

source ↗

[9]

GEBCO Compilation Group2020

supportsWater depth

source ↗

[10]

DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026