Noshiro-Mitane-Oga Offshore Wind (R1 withdrawn — re-auction)
Located off Noshiro City, Mitane Town, and Oga City, Akita. Adjacent to Happo-Noshiro (Round 2 winner). Distinct area from Round 2 designation.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
JapanSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
494 MW ◇
Turbines
38 × 13 MW ◇
Model
GE Haliade X ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Japan Offshore Wind Round 1 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2021 ·
Water depth
8–30 m ≈
Wind speed
7.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other withdrawn ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ○
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
The developer's last guidance was 2031 · not treated as a schedule while the project is on hold
Chance of delivery
≈13%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈13%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 1 (general sea-area public solicitation) awarded 2021-12, withdrawn. No live offtake on record. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Japan Round 1 re-auction (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi) ◇
The three sites a Mitsubishi-led consortium WON in Round 1 (2021) and WITHDREW from in Aug 2025 are to be re-auctioned "as early as 2026", expected before Round 4; timing not firmly fixed.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Sources & verification
0/13 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction results1
[6]
Aquilo Energy / EEAS2026-06-22◆ jp-round1-2021-jp-tenders-study
Japanese offshore-wind tenders study: 30-yr occupancy permit, scheduled operation <=8 years after Occupancy Plan certification
supportsOfftake history
Auction pipeline1
[7]
Shulman Advisory2026
Japan to re-auction the three Round-1 sites (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi) dropped by Mitsubishi, as early as 2026 with a revised price-floor/ceiling framework.
supportsJapan Round 1 re-auction (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi)
Trade press4
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
Unverified import1
[1]