Murakami Tainai Offshore Wind (Round 2)

Located in the Sea of Japan off Niigata Prefecture. RWE's first Japanese offshore wind project.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

M&Mitsui & Co. — 33.33% ◆

RORWE Offshore Wind Japan Murakami-Tainai K.K. — 33.33% ◆

OGOsaka Gas Co. — 33.34% ◆

Location

Japan

Sea of Japan (East Sea)

Verification

4/11 fields verified

9 sources · ◆ 3 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 684 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2023 ·

Water depth 62–81 m ≈ Wind speed 7.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Premium · 3 JPY_per_kWh ◇

Grid —

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced Jun 2029 ◆

COD · Hafrok 2029 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈74% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2028	3.9%
2029 (expected)	50.2%
2030	29.5%
2031	10.6%
2032	3.8%
2033	1.4%
2034	0.6%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈74%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

684 MW contracted — tender award

● Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 2 (general sea-area public solicitation)

Price3 JPY/kWh ·Capacity684 MW AwardedDec 2023

Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageAdvanced Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2029-06

Sources & verification

4/11 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Operator3

[2]

METI / MLIT2023-12-13◆ Round 2 offshore wind operator selection…

“（２）新潟県村上市及び胎内市沖 [1]事業者名（コンソーシアム）：村上胎内洋上風力コンソーシアム [2]構成員：三井物産株式会社、RWE Offshore Wind Japan 村上胎内株式会社、大阪瓦斯株式会社 [3]事業計画概要・発電設備：着床式洋上風力発電・発電設備出力：６８．４万kW （１．８万kW×３８基、GE製）・運転開始予定時期：２０２９年６月”

supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity

source ↗

[3]

METI / MLIT2024-12-06

“「秋田県男鹿市、潟上市及び秋田市沖」、「新潟県村上市及び胎内市沖」及び「長崎県西海市江島沖」における洋上風力発電事業について公募占用計画を認定しました”

supportsConsentConsent applied

source ↗

[6]

Mitsui & Co.2023-12◆ Mitsui secures 684-megawatt project toge…

supportsdeveloperowner

source ↗

Auction results1