Kashima Port
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
JapanNorthwest Pacific
Technology
Capacity
160 MW ◇
Turbines
19 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Kashima Port offshore wind kobo (Ibaraki Prefecture port-waters public solicitation) · 2017 ·
Water depth
6–21 m ≈
Wind speed
7.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈60%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: JP-ROUND1-REAUCTION
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q3), then build time on top gives 2031 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈60%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2017-07
Kashima Port offshore wind kobo (Ibaraki Prefecture port-waters public solicitation)
- Awarded to
- Wind Power Group (lead) + Hitachi Wind Power
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Japan Round 1 re-auction (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi) ◇
The three sites a Mitsubishi-led consortium WON in Round 1 (2021) and WITHDREW from in Aug 2025 are to be re-auctioned "as early as 2026", expected before Round 4; timing not firmly fixed.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
1/10 fields verified · rests on 7 sources
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator3
[1]
[5]
Tokyo Gas (joint press release with Wind Power Group and Vena Energy)2021-04-05
“Wind Power Group Co., Ltd. ("Wind Power Group"), Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. ("Tokyo Gas"), and Vena Energy Holdings Ltd ("Vena Energy") announced today, through Wind Power Energy Co., Ltd., the acceleration …”
supportsowner
[6]
Auction pipeline1
[7]
Shulman Advisory2026
Japan to re-auction the three Round-1 sites (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi) dropped by Mitsubishi, as early as 2026 with a revised price-floor/ceiling framework.
supportsJapan Round 1 re-auction (Noshiro-Mitane-Oga, Yurihonjo, Choshi)
Trade press3
[2]
[3]
[4]