Aomori South Tsugaru Offshore Wind (Round 3)
Located in the Sea of Japan off southern Aomori Prefecture, Tsugaru area. JERA-led consortium.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
JCJERA Co., Inc. — 33.33% ◆
GIGreen Power Investment Co., Ltd. — 33.33% ◆
TETohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. — 33.34% ◆
Location
JapanSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
615 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation) · 2024 ·
Water depth
12–41 m ≈
Wind speed
8.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Premium · 3 JPY_per_kWh ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
Jun 2030 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈75%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈75%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2024-12
Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
- Awarded to
- Tsugaru Offshore Energy — JERA / Green Power Investment / Tohoku EPCO
- Basis
- integrated tender
Founding JV · 2024-12
JERA Co. Inc. · Green Power Investment Corporation (GPI) · Tohoku Electric Power Co. Inc. — On 24 December 2024, METI and MLIT announced the results of Japan's Round 3 offshore wind auctions. For the "Sea of Japan (South), Aomori" (Aomori South Tsugaru) sea area, the Tsugaru Offshore Energy Community consortium — comprising JERA Co. Inc. (lead), Green Power Investment Corporation (GPI), and Tohoku Electric Power Co. Inc. — was selected as the winning operator. Planned capacity: 615 MW (Siemens Gamesa turbines; bottom-fixed). Committed COD: 30 June 2030. Bid price: JPY 3/kWh. JERA Nex bp (the BP/JERA JV formed August 2025) subsequently inherited JERA's interest in this project, as Aomori is listed as part of the JERA Nex bp portfolio on the company's website.
Evidence
- jera.co.jp — Selected as an Offshore Wind Power Generation Operator in the Sea of Japan Offshore Aomori Prefecture (Southern Side of the Prefecture) - Press Release(2024) ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- japanenergyhub.com — JERA and Marubeni-led consortia awarded projects in Japan's third offshore wind auction ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Japan Awards Offshore Wind Sites to JERA-Led Consortium & BP and Partners ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- deepwind.jp — Aomori Tsugaru Offshore Wind｜615MW Fixed-Bottom Project Overview ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
- jeranex.com — Projects ↗ 2024-12 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
615 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
Price3 JPY/kWh ·Capacity615 MWAwardedDec 2024Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030-06
Sources & verification
2/11 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[2]
METI/MLIT (Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism)2024-12◆ 報道発表資料：「青森県沖日本海（南側）」、「山形県遊佐町沖」における洋上風力発電…
“津軽未来洋上エネルギー (Aomori, 615,000kW) ／ 山形遊佐洋上風力合同会社 (Yuza, 450,000kW); ゼロプレミアム水準は3円/kWh. 運転開始予定時期：２０３０年６月.”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[5]
Auction results1
[10]
Aquilo Energy / EEAS2026-06-22◆ jp-round3-2024-jp-tenders-study
Japanese offshore-wind tenders study: 30-yr occupancy permit, scheduled operation <=8 years after Occupancy Plan certification
supportsTender award · Japan Offshore Wind Round 3 (general sea-area public solicitation)
Trade press4
[4]
DLA Piper LLP2024
"Selection = winning the auction. Occupancy designation = the permit from MLIT granting the right to occupy the specific sea area. These are distinct: winning the auction does not automatically grant …
supportsConsent
[6]
[7]
[8]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Aomori Tsugaru Offshore Wind｜615MW Fixed…
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates