Barium Bay
Located >45 km from coast between Bari and Barletta, Puglia, in the Adriatic Sea.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
BBBarium Bay — 100% ◆
Location
ItalyAdriatic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,110 MW ◆
Turbines
74 × 15 MW ◆
Foundation
Floating ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2025-05 ◆
Water depth
103–118 m ≈
Distance from shore
45 km ◆
Wind speed
6.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Not recorded ◇
Connection
Two offshore substations with fixed-bottom foundations … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈52%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2035 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: IT-FER2-OFFSHORE
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2033 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2035–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈52%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Awaiting FER 2 CfD auction (Italy offshore wind). FER2 decree allocates 3,800 MW to offshore wind via long-term Contracts for Difference. Auction not yet launched as of 2026-06-16; MASE halted it in late 2024. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Italy first dedicated offshore auction (FER2 offshore contingent) ◇
stated by industry at Seanergy (May 2026) after informal MASE–Commission talks — strike-price revision by end-2026, auction "at the latest in 2027"; no MASE notice
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
8/17 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[5]
MASE (Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica)◆ Impianti offshore da fonti energetiche r…
“Per gli impianti off-shore, incluse le opere per la connessione alla rete, l'autorizzazione e rilasciata dal Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica ai sensi dell'articolo 9 del decreto l…”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
Operator3
[1]
Galileo Green Energy / Hope Group2023-02-23◆ 2023 02 23 Barium Bay Press Release Engl…
“Galileo, the pan-European renewable energy development platform, and Hope Group, the Apulia-based player active in the design of renewable plants, launch Barium Bay, the new joint venture dedicated to…”
supportsoperatorTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
[2]
Galileo Green Energy2025-05-21
“Barium Bay, with its 1,110 MW, is the largest floating offshore wind farm to obtain Environmental Impact Assessment decree in Italy. The release of the EIA decree allows the project to participate in …”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityConsent applied
[3]
Hope Group2025-05-21
“Barium Bay, con i suoi 1.110 MW, e il piu grande parco eolico offshore galleggiante a ottenere il decreto di Valutazione di Impatto Ambientale in Italia. Il decreto di VIA positivo e stato emesso dal …”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityConsent applied
Auction pipeline1
[10]
reNEWS2026-05-20◆ renews-seanergy-fer2-strike-2026-05
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsItaly first dedicated offshore auction (FER2 offshore contingent)
Trade press4
[6]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-05-21◆ 1.1 GW Barium Bay Floating Offshore Wind…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsDetailStatusConnection point+2 more
[7]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[8]
[9]