Agnes Romagna 2
Located 26 km off Porto Corsini, near Ravenna. Larger of the two Agnes wind farms. Together with Romagna 1, the hub totals 600-700 MW of wind capacity.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Location
ItalyAdriatic Sea
Technology
Capacity
400 MW ◆
Turbines
50 × 8 MW ◆
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2024-07 ◆
Water depth
24–29 m ≈
Distance from shore
26 km ◆
Wind speed
5.6 m/s @ 100 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◆
Grid
Not recorded ◆
Connection
No grid connection agreement publicly disclosed. Project in … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈61%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: IT-FER2-OFFSHORE
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2032 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈61%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
FER 2 auction framework published August 2024 (base tariff EUR 185/MWh), but no auction has been held and no award made for this project. Offshore wind excluded from 2025 auction calendar. Project awaiting FER 2 auction award. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Italy first dedicated offshore auction (FER2 offshore contingent) ◇
stated by industry at Seanergy (May 2026) after informal MASE–Commission talks — strike-price revision by end-2026, auction "at the latest in 2027"; no MASE notice
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
9/16 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[2]
MASE (Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica)2024-07-10◆ "Hub Energetico Agnes Romagna 1 e 2". - …
“Data Decreto VIA: 10/07/2024. N. Decreto VIA: DM_2024-0000221. Esito Decreto VIA: Positivo con prescrizioni/raccomandazioni. Stato procedura: Conclusa.”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
Operator1
[1]
AGNES S.p.A.2024
“Agnes Romagna 2 is the project for a 400 MW offshore wind farm located in the Adriatic Sea, approximately 14 miles (26 km) from the coast of Porto Corsini. 50 wind turbines, each with a power of 8 MW.”
supportsTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityStatusConnection point+1 more
Auction pipeline1
[13]
reNEWS2026-05-20◆ renews-seanergy-fer2-strike-2026-05
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsItaly first dedicated offshore auction (FER2 offshore contingent)
Trade press5
[3]
Watson Farley & Williams2024-08◆ Italy’s new FER 2 Decree: focus on incen…
“On 12 August 2024, the new FER 2 decree was published on the official website of the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security and entered into force on 13 August 2024. Access to incentives for …”
supportsMechanismDetailOfftake history
[9]
Power Technology2024
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsowner
[10]
[11]
[12]