North Irish Sea Array (NISA)
Located off coast of Dublin, Meath and Louth, 13-22 km from shore.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Statkraft — 50% ◆CICopenhagen Infrastructure Partners — 50% ◆
Location
IrelandIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
500 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction) · 2023 ·
Water depth
37–61 m ≈
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD ◆
Grid
Offered ◇
Connection
Belcamp Substation (EirGrid specified; FCO issued Q4 2024 per … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2031 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2031
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 14.1% |
| 2031 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2032 | 22.7% |
| 2033 | 14.6% |
| 2034 | 8.7% |
| 2035 | 5.1% |
| 2036 | 3.1% |
| 2037 | 1.8% |
| 2038 | 1.1% |
| 2039 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2031, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2023-06
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction)
- Awarded to
- Statkraft + Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2023-01
stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2023-01
- Project stage
- early development
Statkraft AS and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), acting through CIP's fund Copenhagen Infrastructure IV K/S, announced a 50/50 joint venture on 17 January 2023 to co-develop up to 2.2 GW of offshore wind in Ireland. The JV covers the North Irish Sea Array (NISA, 500 MW ORESS-1 awarded) and the Bore Array (Celtic Sea deepwater project, ~900 MW), and potentially other sites. Statkraft contributed its existing Irish offshore wind development platform (it had previously held 100% of NISA and Bore Array). CIP acquired a 50% stake in the portfolio. Financial terms were not disclosed. NISA was subsequently awarded a contract in Ireland's first ORESS-1 auction (May 2023) at a state-supported tariff. Total investment to develop and build the projects was estimated at over EUR 4 billion. Capacity shown is NISA only (500 MW awarded); Bore Array is a separate Celtic Sea project not yet at auction stage.
Evidence
- statkraft.com — Statkraft and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners team up to develop 2.2GW of offshore wind in Ireland ↗ ◆ held
- globenewswire.com — Statkraft and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners team up to ↗ 2023-01 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — 500 MW for Statkraft and CIP in First Irish Offshore Wind Auction ↗ 2023-01 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
4/11 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (6 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[10]
Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC)2024◆ 5612b93e F616 4881 8194 250656f0cea1
“Issue Full Phase 1 Connection Offers (including merchant projects) Q4 2024.”
supportsStatusConnection point
Operator2
[5]
EirGrid2023-06-14◆ ORESS 1 Final Auction Results (OR1FAR)
“ORESS1-0312 North Irish Sea Array Windfarm Limited North Irish Sea Array (NISA) 500 [MW]”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[8]
An Coimisiún Pleanála2024-06-07◆ 319866 | An Coimisiún Pleanála -
“Applicant: North Irish Sea Array Windfarm Ltd.”
supportsConsentConsent applied
Trade press4
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2023-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorowner
[12]
[13]
[14]
Unverified import1
[1]