Dublin Array
Located on Kish and Bray Banks, approximately 10 km off Dublin/Wicklow coast. 39-50 turbines with tip heights of 270-310 metres.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
RIRWE Renewables Ireland — 50% ◆
SLSaorgus Energy Ltd — 50% ◆
Location
IrelandIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
824 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction) · 2023 ·
Water depth
4–32 m ≈
Wind speed
9.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · ORESS 1 ◆
Grid
Offered · 2025-11-10 ◇
Connection
Phase 1 ORESS project on the EirGrid grid-connection pathway; … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈80%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈80%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2023-06
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction)
- Awarded to
- RWE (with Saorgus Energy)
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2018-03
Saorgus Energy → RWE 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2018-03
- Project stage
- early development
Innogy Renewables Ireland (a subsidiary of innogy SE, which became part of RWE in July 2020) entered into a 50/50 joint development partnership with Saorgus Energy Ltd for the Dublin Array offshore wind project, announced 26 March 2018. Innogy acquired a 50% stake in the project, then envisaged at up to 600 MW. Saorgus Energy, the original developer, retained 50%. On 1 July 2020 innogy's offshore wind business was transferred to RWE Renewables as part of the E.ON/RWE asset swap, and RWE has led development since. The project capacity was later revised upward to 824 MW. A planning application was submitted in February 2025. Deal value undisclosed. Capacity at time of deal was ~600 MW; the 824 MW figure reflects the current consented design used here for consistency with the project database.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — Innogy to Acquire Half of Dublin Array Offshore Wind Farm Project ↗ 2018-03 ◆ held
- dublinarray.com — innogy to partner Saorgus Energy on Dublin Array project ↗ 2018-03 ◆ held
- windpowermonthly.com — Innogy forms JV with Irish developer for 600MW Dublin Array ↗ 2018-03 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
5/12 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[12]
Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC)2024◆ 5612b93e F616 4881 8194 250656f0cea1
“Issue Full Phase 1 Connection Offers (including merchant projects) Q4 2024.”
supportsStatusConnection point
Operator4
[5]
EirGrid2023-06-14◆ ORESS 1 Final Auction Results (OR1FAR)
"ORESS1-0310 Kish Offshore Wind Limited and Bray Offshore Wind Limited Dublin Array 824" [MW listed as Successful Applicant, Table 3]. "Offshore Wind Average Price €86.05/MWh" (GWh-weighted average …
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[7]
RWE AG2023-05-11◆ RWE delighted with provisional Contract …
“RWE is developing Dublin Array in partnership with Saorgus Energy, both partners hold a 50 percent share in the project. … The provisional offer is for RWE's Dublin Array Offshore Wind Farm, which wou…”
supportsoperatorowner
[9]
An Coimisiún Pleanála2025-02-28◆ 321992 | An Coimisiún Pleanála -
“Case Reference: OA06D.321992. Applicant: Bray Offshore Wind Ltd and Kish Offshore Wind Ltd. Date Lodged: 28/02/2025. Decision Due Date: 09/09/2025. Case Type: Marine Development - Application.”
supportsConsentConsent applied
[16]
RWE AG2025-02-26
“Subject to obtaining planning permission and a financial investment decision, construction of Dublin Array could begin as early as 2027, with operations projected to start in 2030.”
supportsCommercial operation
Trade press3
[13]
[14]
[15]
Unverified import1
[1]