Arklow Bank Wind Park Phase 2
Located 6-13 km off Arklow, Co. Wicklow on Arklow Bank. 47-56 turbines depending on final design. Up to 800 MW maximum export capacity.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SPSure Partners Ltd — 100% ◆
Location
IrelandIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
800 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2024-06 ◆
Water depth
20–41 m ≈
Distance from shore
6 km ◆
Wind speed
9.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
No agreement ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈58%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈58%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
8/12 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator4
[1]
SSE Renewables2026-06◆ Arklow Bank Wind Park | SSE Renewables
"The Arklow Bank Wind Park 2 project, which is under development, will be located off the coast of Arklow, Co. Wicklow and is planned to be the next phase of wind energy development at Arklow Bank and…
supportsFirst powerTotal capacityDistance from shoreCoordinates
[2]
An Coimisiun Pleanala2024-06◆ 319864 | An Coimisiún Pleanála -
“Case OA27.319864, applicant "Sure Partners Ltd" (Active), proposed offshore wind energy development "Arklow Bank Wind Park 2", off the coasts of County Wicklow and County Wexford. Application received…”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[6]
SSE Renewables2026-06◆ Arklow Bank Wind Park Onshore Grid Infra…
“An Bord Pleanala approved planning permission for "a 220kV substation at Avoca River Business Park in Arklow, Co. Wicklow" and associated underground cable route and landfall infrastructure connecting…”
supportsStatus
[10]
SSE plc2026-06-18◆ SSE Annual Report 2026 (FY to 31 March 2…
“Note A3.1.1 Subsidiary undertakings ("Details of the Group's subsidiary undertakings at 31 March 2026"): "Sure Partners Limited C 100.0" - registered-address key C (Republic of Ireland section), Grou…”
supports↳ parent
Auction pipeline1
[11]
Government of Ireland (gov.ie)2024-05◆ govie-future-framework
Future Framework — plan-led DMAP auctions; South Coast DMAP sites beyond Tonn Nua to be brought to market.
supportsSouth Coast DMAP Area B (Lí Ban)
Trade press3
[7]
[8]
[9]