Pennavel (Bretagne Sud)

AO5 Round 5 project. Located off the south coast of Brittany near Lorient, Belle-Ile-en-Mer and Groix. At least 19 km from coastline.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ELElicio — 50% 
BRBayWa r.e. — 50% 
Location
France
Northeast Atlantic
Technology
Capacity 250 MW 
Turbines
Foundation Floating 
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held 
Origination France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating) · 2024 ·
Water depth 80–95 m  Distance from shore 19 km  Wind speed 8.9 m/s @ 150 m 
Revenue & grid
Offtake CfD  Grid No agreement  Connection RTE grid connection planned for South Brittany zone. 
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2031 
COD · Hafrok 2031 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2031
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈79% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2030: 3.9% (conditional on completion) 2031: 50.2% (conditional on completion) 2032: 29.5% (conditional on completion) 2033: 10.6% (conditional on completion) 2034: 3.8% (conditional on completion) 2035: 1.4% (conditional on completion) 2036: 0.6% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202820292030203150%20322033203420352036 Developer-announced COD: 2031 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2031developer cod guidance2026-04 → 2026-06: the developer guided 2031 in 2 statements — sources [3] — click for the sources2026-062031 · held since 2026-04 (×2) [3]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20303.9%
2031 (expected)50.2%
203229.5%
203310.6%
20343.8%
20351.4%
20360.6%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-06-162031 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2032; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2030, the slower quarter not until 2032 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2031, likely range 2030–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2024’25’26’27’28’29’30’31Developer-announced COD: 2031 announced COD 2031France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating) — awarded to Pennavel (Elicio + BayWa r.e)France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating) May 2024 · auction recordCommercial operation 2031 ·Hafrok expectedFrance Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating) — awarded to Pennavel (Elicio + BayWa r.e) 2024-05 ORIGINATIONTODAYElicio — 50% today · operator Elicio Elicio 50%BayWa r.e. — 50% today · developer BayWa r.e. BayWa r.e. 50%France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating) — awarded to Pennavel (Elicio + BayWa r.e)
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2031, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

250 MW contracted — tender award
Tender award · France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating)
Price€86.45/MWh ·Capacity250 MWAwardedMay 2024
Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031

Sources & verification

0/15 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (3 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator3
[2]
Pennavel (Elicio / BayWa r.e.)2024◆ Pennavel - Floating offshore wind farm i…
“France's first commercial-scale floating offshore wind farm (250 MW). Located off the coasts of Groix and Belle-Ile-en-Mer, Southern Brittany. 19 km minimum distance from the coast. Will supply green,…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityFoundationDistance from shoreCoordinates
[3]
Commission de Régulation de l'Énergie (CRE)2024
“parc éolien en mer flottant d'une puissance de 250 MW au Sud de la Bretagne […] mise en service du parc aux alentours de 2031 (floating offshore wind farm of 250 MW in South Brittany […] park commissi…”
supportsCommercial operationCOD historyTotal capacityFoundation
[7]
DGEC — Ministère de la Transition écologique (eoliennesenmer.fr)2026-08-25◆ French Eoliennes en mer register (DGEC),…
“Register node 675 (node--type-project) at /facades-maritimes-en-france/facade-nord-atlantique-manche-ouest/projet-en-bretagne-sud/bretagne-sud-1 — title 'Bretagne Sud 1'; page text 13026 chars, hash 4…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[8]
CRE (Commission de regulation de l'energie) / DGEC2023◆ fr-ao5-cahier-des-charges
AO5 Bretagne Sud cahier des charges - first commercial FLOATING round (250 MW); complement de remuneration offtake.
supportsTender award · France Offshore Wind AO5 (South Brittany floating)
Trade press4
[1]
Offshore Wind Biz2024-05-16◆ France Names Winner of Country's First L…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatordeveloperTotal capacityFoundationMechanism+1 more
[4]
Energies de la Mer2024-05-17
“86,45 €/MWh […] La procédure concurrentielle dite AO5 a été lancée en avril 2021 […] Elicio et BayWa r.e. […] 13 aérogénérateurs.”
supportsMechanismDetailStatusConnection point
[5]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[6]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed