Centre Manche 2
AO8 Round 8 project. Located in Bay of Seine, east of Cotentin Peninsula, near Centre Manche 1. New-generation turbines up to 21.5 MW each.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
TotalEnergies — 100% ◇Location
FranceEnglish Channel
Technology
Capacity
1,500 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
France Offshore Wind AO8 (Centre Manche 2) · 2025 ·
Water depth
36–49 m ≈
Distance from shore
40 km ◆
Wind speed
9.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · €66/MWh ◆
Grid
Not recorded ◇
Connection
HVDC grid connection via RTE planned. Nexans HVDC cable … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈76%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, a very large build and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 3.9% |
| 2033 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2034 | 29.5% |
| 2035 | 10.6% |
| 2036 | 3.8% |
| 2037 | 1.4% |
| 2038 | 0.6% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2033 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈76%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2025-09
France Offshore Wind AO8 (Centre Manche 2)
- Awarded to
- Cotentin Energies Marines (TotalEnergies + RWE)
- Basis
- integrated tender
Founding JV · 2025-09
TotalEnergies · RWE — The French Ministry of Industry and Energy awarded the AO8 tender for the 1.5 GW Centre Manche 2 offshore wind farm in September 2025 to the TotalEnergies-RWE consortium. The winning bid price was EUR 66/MWh for a 20-year offtake. The overall project investment is approximately EUR 4.5 billion, representing TotalEnergies' largest investment in France in 30 years. At time of award, RWE signalled its intention to exit the consortium, subject to regulatory approval; TotalEnergies confirmed it would continue the project alone or with a new partner. No equity transfer or farmdown has yet been formally announced. This was a tender consortium formation, not a secondary market transaction; no consideration was exchanged between parties. The project is FID-scheduled for early 2029 and COD estimated around 2033. Located in the Bay of Seine, east of the Cotentin Peninsula, adjacent to Centre Manche 1.
Evidence
- TotalEnergies — Centre Manche 2, France's Largest Renewable Energy Project ↗ 2026-06-16 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — TotalEnergies-RWE Consortium Wins France's Largest Offshore Wind Tender as RWE Signals Exit ↗ 2025-09 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2033, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
1,500 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · France Offshore Wind AO8 (Centre Manche 2)
Price€66/MWh ·Capacity1,500 MWAwardedSep 2025Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemCentre Manche 2 HVDC (Offshore)·1250 MW · ±320 kV · ordered, expected 2033
HVDC systemCentre Manche 2 HVDC (Onshore — Tourbe)·1250 MW · ±320 kV · ordered, expected 2033
Export & onshore
Export cableCentre Manche 2 Export Cable·HVDC subsea · Nexans · planned · to Tourbe (onshore converter)
Onshore connectionTourbe Converter Station (Centre Manche 2)·320 DC / 400 AC kV · planning
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Centre Manche 2 HVDC (Offshore) · Chantiers de l'Atlantique (Saint-Nazaire) · for RTE
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Centre Manche 2 HVDC (Onshore — Tourbe) · Chantiers de l'Atlantique (Saint-Nazaire) · for RTE
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
6/12 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator5
[1]
TotalEnergies2025-09-24◆ France: TotalEnergies Selected by the St…
“Electricity will be sold at a competitive price of €66/MWh ... Electricity production is expected to begin in 2033 ... final investment decision scheduled for early 2029 ... overall investment of appr…”
supportsCommercial operationCOD historyStrike / price
[2]
Ministère de l'Industrie et de l'Énergie (France)2025-09-24◆ Désignation du lauréat de l’appel d’offr…
“le consortium Cotentin Energies Marines, composé de TotalEnergies et RWE, comme le lauréat de l'appel d'offres ... à plus de 40 km des côtes, au large de la baie de Seine ... 1 500 MW”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetailDistance from shore
[5]
TotalEnergies2026-06-16◆ Centre Manche 2, France's Largest Renewa…
“Located more than 40 km off the coast of Normandy ... Electricity production is then expected to start in 2033 ... generate approximately 6 TWh per year.”
supportsDistance from shore
[8]
Nexans2025-03-25◆ Nexans wins major frame agreement with r…
“Nexans has secured a major framework agreement with RTE for the design, manufacturing, and supply of HVDC cables, which will be used to connect the Centre Manche 1 & 2 and Oléron offshore wind farms t…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[9]
DGEC — Ministère de la Transition écologique (eoliennesenmer.fr)2026-08-25◆ French Eoliennes en mer register (DGEC),…
“Register node 804 (node--type-project) at /facades-maritimes-en-france/facade-manche-mer-du-nord/projet-centre-manche/centre-manche-2 — title 'Centre Manche 2'; page text 4870 chars, hash 3d451b8ac898…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[10]
CRE (Commission de regulation de l'energie) / DGEC2024◆ fr-ao8-cahier-des-charges
AO8 Centre Manche 2 cahier des charges - fixed-bottom Normandy; won by Cotentin Energies Marines (TotalEnergies + RWE), designated Sep 2025; complement de remuneration.
supportsTender award · France Offshore Wind AO8 (Centre Manche 2)
Trade press4
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-09-24
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatusConnection point
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-05-28
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorConsent
[6]
[7]