North Sea Energy Island
North Sea Energy Island (Energio Nordsoen / VindO), ~3 GW phase 1; Danish state + private consortium; delayed to ~mid-2030s.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Danish Energy Agency — 100% ◇
Location
DenmarkNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
3,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated State designation · Folketing / Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen) · 2020-06 ◆
Water depth
26–27 m ◇
Distance from shore
80 km ◇
Wind speed
10.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈56%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: DK-NORDSOEN-SYD
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2028 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2030 Q4), then build time on top gives 2033 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 3
HVDC systemNorth Sea Energy Island — HVDC Hub (Phase 1)·3000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2035
HVDC systemNordsøen I — HVDC Connection (if required)·2000 MW · ±525 kV · needed, expected 2032
HVDC systemTritonLink Interconnector (Belgium — PEI side)·1400 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2036
Export & onshore
Export cableTritonLink Interconnector Cable (Belgium — Denmark)·HVDC subsea · 1000 km · planned · to Danish Energy Island (via North Sea)
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
1/10 fields verified · rests on 6 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[5]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2026◆ Energy Island North Sea
“Energy Island in the North Sea Skip to main content Home Menu Search Header navigation About us Press DA / EN / Main navigation Energy sources Supply and consumption Global cooperation A…”
supportsSite rights
Auction pipeline1
[6]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11◆ dea-3-tenders-2025
DEA — Nordsøen Syd, >=1,000 MW, bid deadline autumn 2028.
supportsNordsøen Syd (North Sea South)
Trade press2
[3]
[4]
Encyclopaedic2
[1]
[2]