Nordsøen Syd
Located in the Danish North Sea. Third site in the re-tendered package. Later timeline than Nordsoeen Midt and Hesselo.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
DenmarkNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Nordsøen Syd (North Sea South) ∴
Water depth
26–33 m ≈
Wind speed
10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
No agreement ◆
Connection
Endrup (per Energistyrelsen Nordsøen I planning page) ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2034 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈59%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2034 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: DK-NORDSOEN-SYD
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2028 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2030 Q4), then build time on top gives 2033 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈59%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Announced COD: held (announced 2034, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Two-sided CfD (state tender, DKK 8.2bn ceiling for Nordsøen Syd) ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2034
Construction ports
PortEsbjerg ◆·quay 10000 m · crane 300 t · draft 15 m
Sources & verification
9/13 fields verified · rests on 7 sources (3 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11-20◆ DEA opens three new CfD offshore tenders…
“The deadline for submission of tenders for 'North Sea South' is autumn 2028. 'North Sea South', minimum 1 GW, must be completed by the end of 2034”
supportsConsentCommercial operationCOD historyTotal capacityDetail+2 more
[2]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11-20◆ Nordsøen I (Syd og Midt) havvindmøllepar…
“Both parks are expected to be connected to the grid at Endrup. Nordsøen I Syd: tender opened November 20, 2025; bid deadline October 23, 2028; expected to be operational by end of 2034”
supportsStatusConnection pointCoordinates
Auction pipeline1
[9]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11◆ dea-3-tenders-2025
DEA — Nordsøen Syd, >=1,000 MW, bid deadline autumn 2028.
supportsNordsøen Syd (North Sea South)
Trade press4
[3]
Kromann Reumert2025-11-20
“The ceiling was reduced from DKK 16.4 billion to DKK 8.2 billion as part of the redistribution across the three wind farms. The bidding deadline for Nordsøen Syd extended by one year from autumn 2027 …”
supportsBackground
[4]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-12-06
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[7]
[8]