Jammerland Bugt
Open-door project located south of Kalundborg, between Asnaes and Reerso peninsulas in the Great Belt area. 16 turbines at 256m height.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
TotalEnergies — 85% ◆EUEuropean Energy — 15% ◆
Location
DenmarkKattegat
Technology
Capacity
240 MW ◆
Turbines
16 × 15 MW ◇
Foundation
Monopile ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2024-12 ◆
Water depth
9–27 m ≈
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Energinet high-voltage station at Asnæsværket ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2029 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2029; Hafrok expects 2032 — 3 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈37%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: technical complexity and no offtake contract yet. It is then halved while the majority stake has no sponsor: TotalEnergies announced its exit in 2026-08 and no successor is named.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Merchant project — financing counted from today
The project has no offtake contract yet. This project's route offers no support scheme: it has to sign a power contract and take a financing decision on its own, and Hafrok counts that from today (
2026 Q3) rather than from a tender it cannot enter. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q3), then build time on top gives 2031 Q3. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2031–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2029) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — and halve the result while the majority stake has no sponsor (TotalEnergies announced its exit in 2026-08; no successor is named — from the ownership ledger, cleared the day a buyer is recorded) — to ≈37%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Farmdown · 2024-01
European Energy / SONFOR → TotalEnergies 85%
- Stake
- 85%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2024-01
- Closed
- 2024-12
- Project stage
- consented
On 23 January 2024, TotalEnergies and European Energy announced an agreement to expand their collaboration into offshore wind in the Nordics, covering projects in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. As part of this agreement, TotalEnergies agreed to acquire an 85% equity stake in the 240 MW Jammerland Bugt offshore wind farm (also known as Jammerland Bay) and a 72.2% stake in the 165 MW Lillebaelt Syd (Lillebælt South) nearshore project, both located in Denmark. SONFOR (a Danish renewable energy cooperative) also held a minority stake in Jammerland Bugt. On 20 December 2024, TotalEnergies, European Energy, and SONFOR formally closed the deal. European Energy retains a 15% minority stake in Jammerland Bugt; SONFOR retains a minority stake in Lillebaelt Syd alongside European Energy's remainder. Both projects had received construction permits from the Danish Energy Agency and were among nine open-door projects confirmed by the DEA in December 2023. The projects are expected to be operational by 2029. The Jammerland Bugt project (16 turbines on monopile foundations, 31.1 km² area, south of Kalundborg, Great Belt) is fully consented as of December 2024. Note: This record covers Jammerland Bugt (240 MW, offshore). Data confidence: HIGH — stake percentages confirmed; deal value undisclosed.
Evidence
- TotalEnergies — Renewables: TotalEnergies and European Energy Expand their Collaboration to Offshore Wind ↗ 2024-01-23 ◆ held
- europeanenergy.com — TotalEnergies and European Energy Expand their Collaboration to Offshore Wind ↗ 2024-01 ◆ held
- europeanenergy.com — TotalEnergies, European Energy and SONFOR close deal on two Danish offshore wind projects ↗ 2024-01 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — TotalEnergies Takes Majority Ownership of Two Danish Offshore Wind Projects ↗ 2024-01 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Divestment · 2026-08
TotalEnergies 85%
- Stake
- 85%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2026-08
- Project stage
- consented
Trade press (21 August 2026), citing Danish media: TotalEnergies is exiting Jammerland Bugt as well as Lillebælt Syd, saying "scale is increasingly critical to the economic viability of offshore wind projects, which is why we are focusing our efforts on projects larger than the two nearshore projects in the straits, which are 240 and 165 megawatts, respectively." TotalEnergies had taken 85% in December 2024. No buyer or process has been named.
Evidence
- Offshore Wind Biz — Danish Utility Seeks New Partner as TotalEnergies Exits Lillebaelt Syd Offshore Wind Project ↗ 2026-08-21 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Open-door nearshore; electricity to be sold on the wholesale electricity market or through Corporate PPAs (CPPAs) per developer. No signed offtake contract as of 2026-06-15. Not a CfD route. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2029
Sources & verification
5/14 fields verified · rests on 12 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Energistyrelsen (Danish Energy Agency)2024-12-17◆ Energistyrelsen giver tilladelse til at …
“Energistyrelsen udsteder etableringstilladelse til Jammerland Bugt Kystnær Havmøllepark ... projektet vil have en samlet kapacitet på 240 MW ... Tilslutningspunktet bliver Energinets eksisterende højs…”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityConsent granted
Operator4
[4]
TotalEnergies2024-01-23◆ Renewables: TotalEnergies and European E…
“acquisition by TotalEnergies of a 85% equity stake in the Jammerland Bugt offshore wind project (240 MW) ... have obtained exclusivity and grid connection permits ... The electricity generated by thes…”
supportsDetailStatusConnection pointOfftake history
[5]
[7]
[8]
Auction pipeline1
[15]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11◆ dea-3-tenders-2025
DEA — Nordsøen Syd, >=1,000 MW, bid deadline autumn 2028.
supportsNordsøen Syd (North Sea South)
Trade press5
[9]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-12
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesFoundation
[10]
4C Offshore2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[11]
[12]
[13]
Unverified import1
[1]