Aflandshage
Open-door project located 10km south of Amager (Copenhagen), 8km northeast of Stevns in Oresund. 26 gravity-based foundations ordered from Aarsleff.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
HOFOR — 100% ◇Location
DenmarkØresund
Technology
Capacity
286 MW ◇
Turbines
26 × 11 MW ◇
Model
Siemens Gamesa SG 11-0-200 DD ◇
Foundation
GBS ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2023-07 ◆
Water depth
13–17 m ≈
Distance from shore
10 km ◇
Wind speed
9.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
Chance of delivery
≈15%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. Technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈15%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Construction ports
PortPort of Koge ◇turbines
Sources & verification
1/16 fields verified · rests on 11 sources (3 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[1]
HOFOR (operator)2025◆ Aflandshage Vindmøllepark - HOFOR
“As of 2025, HOFOR has completed two years of bat surveys (started August 2023) and is in dialogue with authorities about reacquiring permits. A central question involves whether modern turbines can re…”
supportsTurbinesDistance from shore
[11]
HOFOR2023-11-03◆ HOFORs investering i Øresunds havvindpro…
“Energistyrelsens afgørelse blev dog påklaget til Energiklagenævnet, som i begyndelsen af juli 2023 ophævede etableringstilladelsen, primært med henvisning til at en allerede planlagt flagermusundersøg…”
supportsConsentSite rights
Auction pipeline1
[13]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11◆ dea-3-tenders-2025
DEA — Nordsøen Syd, >=1,000 MW, bid deadline autumn 2028.
supportsNordsøen Syd (North Sea South)
Trade press8
[2]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2023-11-06◆ HOFOR Shelves 300 MW Offshore Wind Proje…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityFoundationturbines
[3]
Baltic Wind2023-11
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[4]
Splash2472023-11
“HOFOR has put its Aflandshage offshore wind project on hold with the possibility of completely pulling the plug on the project. The establishment permit was withdrawn in July 2023 following complaints…”
supportsBackground
[5]
[6]
[7]
[8]
NS Energy2023
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[9]