O-2.2

100 km2 site, 40 km from coast. TotalEnergies bid EUR 2.07 million/MW. Part of 7 GW auction (3x North Sea, 1x Baltic). Grid connection target end of 2030.

Status

Early Developmentlifecycle stage

ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

TotalEnergies — 100% ◆

Location

Germany

Baltic Sea

Verification

5/11 fields verified

10 sources · ◆ 4 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 1,000 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2023 (dynamic bidding / concession) · 2023 ·

Water depth 42–46 m ≈ Wind speed 10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Merchant ◆ Grid Offered · 2023-07 ◆ Connection Ostwind 4 HVDC (525 kV, 2 GW); 50Hertz ◆

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈62% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2032	14.1%
2033 (expected)	28.0%
2034	22.7%
2035	14.6%
2036	8.7%
2037	5.1%
2038	3.1%
2039	1.8%
2040	1.1%
2041	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈62%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Zero-subsidy dynamic auction (EUR 2.07m/MW premium bid; 72 rounds). No signed PPA or CfD exists. Offtake route is merchant/market. ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇

expected 2027 · planned · the round’s published documents do not name this project

indicative

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageEarly Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operationnot stated

Grid connection

from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers

Offshore platforms · 0

Platformnone on the register

Export & onshore

Onshore connectionBrünzow Converter Station (Ostwind 4)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · planning

Grid connection · ready in time?

when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives

installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved

Sources & verification

5/11 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator2

[2]

Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA)2023-07-12◆ BNetzA 2023 offshore auction results - d…

“For site O-2.2 (auction volume 1,000 MW) ... the bid value was EUR 2.07 million/MW after 72 bidding rounds. The successful bidder Baltic Sea OFW O2-2 GmbH & Co. KG ... receives a right to a planning a…”

supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatusConnection point+1 more

source ↗archive ↗

[7]

Bundesnetzagentur2023

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

Operator2

[3]

Baltic Wind (reporting on TotalEnergies press release dated 2024-10-10)2024-10-14◆ TotalEnergies renames key German offshor…

Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.

supportsFirst power

source ↗archive ↗