Nordseecluster A

Part of 1.6 GW Nordseecluster (NC 1/N-3.7 and NC 2/N-3.8 form Phase A; NC 3/N-3.5 and NC 4/N-3.6 form Phase B). FID taken May 2024.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2027
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 86.7% (conditional on completion) 2028: 13.3% (conditional on completion)2026now202787%2028 Developer-announced COD: 2027 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2027developer cod guidance2023-05 → 2026-08: the developer guided 2027 in 7 statements — sources [4] [3] [8] [19] [16] [18] [21] — click for the sources2026-082027 · held since 2023-05 (×7) [4 +6]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
2027 (expected)86.7%
202813.3%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-08-312027 (held since 2023-05-25, 7 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2028.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2027, likely range 2026–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2022’23’24’25’26’27Developer-announced COD: 2027 announced COD 2027BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2021 (central model) — awarded to RWE Renewables Offshore Development Two GmbHBNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2021 (central model) Sep 2021 · auction recordView the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision 27 May 2024 View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted Jun 2024 View the sources for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Jul 2025 View the source for First powerFirst power Jul 2026 Commercial operation 2027 ·Hafrok expectedBNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2021 (central model) — awarded to RWE Renewables Offshore Development Two GmbH 2021-09 ORIGINATIONRWE → NBIM — 49.0% · closed 2025-06 2025-03 FARMDOWNTODAYRWE — 51% today · operator RWE RWE 51%Norges Bank Investment Management — 49% today · partner NBIM NBIM 49%BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2021 (central model) — awarded to RWE Renewables Offshore Development Two GmbH RWE → NBIM — 49.0% · closed 2025-06 49%
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2027, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake zero-bid award · bilateral offtake

Auction won at €0.00/MWh — no state price support
The award carries no state price support — revenue rests on bilaterally contracted offtake. Corporate PPA contracts are not yet recorded as structured data; the Revenue & offtake rows carry what the record's sources state.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations44 of 44100% · first seen 2025-07-25
Turbines21 of 4448% · first seen 2025-08-12
Latest count2026-09-07from 293 satellite passes · 2 substation platforms left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (44 turbines + 2 platforms); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
1020304046 planned (turbines and platforms)latest count 2026-09-07foundations — running total, confirmedfoundations — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedJul 2025 — 2 this month · 2 in totalAug 2025 — 11 this month · 13 in totalSep 2025 — 12 this month · 25 in totalOct 2025 — 16 this month · 41 in totalNov 2025 — 5 this month · 46 in totalMar 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalApr 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalJun 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalJul 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalAug 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalSep 2026 — 0 this month · 46 in totalturbines up — running total, confirmedturbines up — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedJul 2025 — 0 this month · 0 in totalAug 2025 — 2 this month · 2 in totalSep 2025 — 1 this month · 3 in totalOct 2025 — 0 this month · 3 in totalNov 2025 — 0 this month · 3 in totalMar 2026 — 2 this month · 5 in totalApr 2026 — 1 this month · 6 in totalJun 2026 — 5 this month · 11 in totalJul 2026 — 5 this month · 16 in totalAug 2026 — 7 this month · 23 in totalSep 2026 — 0 this month · 23 in total46 foundations23 turbines upJul 2025Sep 2025Nov 2025Apr 2026Jul 2026Sep 2026Aeolus · FoundationsBoreas · FoundationsNorse Wind · Turbines
Construction ports
PortEemshaven ·marshalling · quay 5000 m · crane 50 t · draft 14 m
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 2
Offshore substationNordseecluster 1 offshore substation (USP)·under construction · owner RWE Offshore Wind GmbH (51%) / Norges Bank Investment Management (49%)
Offshore substationNordseecluster 2 offshore substation (USP)·under construction · owner RWE Offshore Wind GmbH (51%) / Norges Bank Investment Management (49%)
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
20262027Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2027developer’s stated start 2027nowNordseecluster 1 offshore substation (USP)Nordseecluster 1 offshore substat…platform installed 2026platform installed 2026Nordseecluster 2 offshore substation (USP)Nordseecluster 2 offshore substat…platform installed 2026platform installed 2026

Sources & verification

18/19 fields verified · rests on 20 sources (18 primary) · ◆ 16 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[1]
Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH)2024-06-14◆ Planfeststellungsbeschluss Offshore-Wind…
“BSH Az.: 5111/NC 1/PFV Hamburg, den 14.06.2024 — Der Planfeststellungsbeschluss umfasst 15 Windenergieanlagen (WEA) … Nennleistung je WEA: 15 MW … Gründungsstruktur: Monopile … Die insgesamt einzuspei…”
supportsConsentTurbinesUnit capacityFoundationStatus+4 more
[2]
Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH)2024-06-12◆ Planfeststellungsbeschluss Offshore-Wind…
“BSH Az: 5111/NC 2/PFV Hamburg, den 12.06.2024 — Der Planfeststellungsbeschluss umfasst 29 Windenergieanlagen (WEA) … Nennleistung je WEA: 15 MW … Gründungsstruktur: Monopile … Die gesamt einzuspeisend…”
supportsConsentTurbinesUnit capacityFoundationStatus+3 more
[20]
Bundesnetzagentur — Marktstammdatenregister2026-08-23◆ Marktstammdatenregister (MaStR) offshore…
“Park row "NC 1": 15 units, 225.0 MW gross, statuses {'In Betrieb': 2, 'In Planung': 13}, operators ['Nordseecluster A GmbH & Co. KG'], commissioned 2026-07-21..2026-07-31, planned 2026-07-19..2026-07-…”
supportsRegister entry
[23]
Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) — GeoSeaPortal, CONTIS Facilities2026-09-09
“featureid 405013, name_ "NC 1", status Approved, 10.4 km², centroid 54.0427 N 7.0649 E; featureid 405003, name_ "NC 2", status Approved, 20.6 km² in two parts (14.8 + 5.7), centroid 54.0689 N 6.8897 E…”
supportsCoordinates
Operator11
[3]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2024-05-27◆ Investment decision made: RWE to build w…
“RWE has made the investment decision for its Nordseecluster, involving offshore wind projects with a total capacity of 1.6 gigawatts (GW). … Nordseecluster A with 660 MW … By the beginning of 2027, al…”
supportsFinal investment decisionCommercial operationTurbinesTotal capacity
[5]
RWE AG2025-03-31◆ RWE and Norges Bank Investment Managemen…
“NBIM will acquire a 49% stake in both projects. RWE remains in charge of construction and operations throughout the lifecycle of these offshore wind farms. The agreed purchase price is approximately €…”
supportsBackground
[6]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2025-03-14◆ Nordseecluster: First foundations for Ge…
“The first eight foundations have arrived and been offloaded in the Dutch base port Eemshaven. … Beginning in summer, the foundations will be shipped from the base port in Eemshaven out to the construc…”
supportsOffshore constructionDistance from shoremarshalling
[7]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2025-07-28◆ Nordseecluster offshore wind project rea…
“Nordseecluster offshore wind project reaches important milestone: first monopile foundation successfully installed around 50 kilometres north of the German island of Juist. … Foundation installation w…”
supportsOffshore constructionDistance from shore
[8]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2025-11-07◆ RWE has installed all wind turbine found…
“With the successful installation of all monopile foundations for the wind turbines and their accompanying secondary steel structures, a further significant milestone in the Nordseecluster A offshore p…”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityFoundationAeolus — foundation installation
[9]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2026-02-10◆ Nordseecluster offshore wind project: Su…
“A ceremony held today at the Chantiers de l'Atlantique shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, France, marked the successful completion of the design, construction and integration phases of two offshore electrical…”
supportsBackground
[16]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2026-06-11◆ First turbine up at Nordseecluster A off…
“Full commissioning of Nordseecluster A (660 megawatts) scheduled for early 2027 ... With a total capacity of 660 MW, Nordseecluster A is expected to be fully connected to the grid in early 2027.”
supportsOffshore constructionCommercial operationNorse Wind — turbine installation
[18]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2026-07-22◆ First electricity fed into grid from nor…
“Yesterday, just a few weeks after the successful installation of the first turbine , electricity was fed into the German grid for the first time. … With a total capacity of 660 megawatts (MW), Nordsee…”
supportsFirst power
[19]
RWE Supply and Trading2026-03-10◆ Munich airport procures offshore wind po…
“Munich Airport and energy producer RWE signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) in February 2026. The PPA has a term of ten years and guarantees the airport 40 gigawatt hours (40 million kilowatt hours…”
supportsMechanismDetail
[21]
RWE Offshore Wind GmbH2026-08-31◆ Half of turbines for nordseecluster a of…
“RWE celebrated the halfway point on the high seas as the 22nd wind turbine was installed around 50 kilometres north of the German island of Juist and half of the turbines for the first construction ph…”
supportsCOD history
[22]
RWE AG2025-06-04◆ Rwe and nbim jointly realise offshore wi…
“RWE and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) have successfully closed the transaction they announced in March. NBIM now holds a 49% equity stake in both the Nordseecluster and Thor offshore wind p…”
supportsoperatorpartner
OEM1
[10]
Vestas2024-06-14◆ Vestas secures 660 MW order for the Nord…
“Vestas has received a firm order for RWE's 660 MW Nordseecluster A offshore wind project in Germany. The order comprises 44 V236-15.0 MW turbines.”
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity
Record source1
[25]
RWE2025-07-28◆ rwe-nc-first-monopile-2025-07
The monopiles were shipped from the heavy-lift terminal in Eemshaven, the Netherlands, to the construction site in the German North Sea by Van Oord's brand-new offshore installation vessel Boreas. Fou…
supportsBoreas — foundation installation
Trade press3
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2021-09-09
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetail
[14]
4C Offshore2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[15]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed