Hafrok

N-9.1

106 km2 site, 110-115 km northwest of Borkum. RWE and TotalEnergies JV, EUR 4 billion combined investment for N-9.1 and N-9.2.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
RWE — 50% ◆
TotalEnergies — 50% ◆
Location
Germany
North Sea
Verification
5/12 fields verified
10 sources · ◆ 6 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 2,000 MW ◆
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2024 (central model, qualitative) · 2024 ·
Water depth 38–42 m ≈ Distance from shore 115 km ◇ Wind speed 10.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake Merchant ◆ Grid Offered · 2024-08-12 ◆ Connection TenneT North Sea; grid connection right granted by BNetzA … ◆
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2031 ◆
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈58% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now2028203020312032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040 Developer-announced COD: 2031 ANNOUNCED 2031
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈58%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2025’26’27’28’29’30’31’32’33Developer-announced COD: 2031 announced COD 2031BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2024 (central model, qualitative) — awarded to Offshore Wind Four GmbHBNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2024 (central model, qualitative) Aug 2024 · auction recordCommercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedBNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2024 (central model, qualitative) — awarded to Offshore Wind Four GmbH 2024-08 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYOffshore Wind Four GmbH Offshore Wind Four GmbH Offshore Wind Four GmbH not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedRWE — 50% today · operator RWE RWE 50%TotalEnergies — 50% today · partner TotalEnergies TotalEnergies 50%BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2024 (central model, qualitative) — awarded to Offshore Wind Four GmbH Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Zero-subsidy concession (BNetzA central-model August 2024); no EEG market premium — merchant operation. ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇
expected 2027 · planned · the round’s published documents do not name this project
indicative

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemBalWin1·2000 MW · ±525 kV · under construction, expected 2031
Export & onshore
Export cableBalWin1 Export Cable (Amprion)·HVDC subsea · 358 km · Prysmian · ordered · to Wehrendorf, southern Osnabrück region (onshore converter)
Converter supplierSiemens Energy·BalWin1 · Dragados Offshore (Cádiz, Spain) — topside; Aker Solutions (Verdal, Norway) — steel substructure · for Amprion
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
20262027202820292030203120322033Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2033developer’s stated start 2031nowBalWin1BalWin1expected 2031expected 2031BalWin1 Export Cable (Amprion)BalWin1 Export Cable (Amprion)expected 2030expected 2030

Sources & verification

5/12 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Bundesnetzagentur2024-08-12◆ BNetzA offshore central-model 2024 resul…
“Die Inbetriebnahme der Windparks auf den Flächen N-9.1, N-9.2, N-9.3 ist für die Jahre 2029 (N-9.3), 2030 (N-9.1) und 2031 (N-9.2) vorgesehen. Die Zuschläge für die Flächen N-9.1 und N-9.2 erhielten d…”
supportsConsentMechanismDetailStatusConnection point+1 more
source ↗
Operator4
[2]
RWE2024-08-12◆ Success in German offshore wind auction:…
“Subject to the necessary permits, offshore construction could start in 2029 and 2030, with full commissioning planned for 2031 and 2032 respectively.”
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[4]
RWE2024-10-07◆ RWE to realise 4 GW offshore wind projec…
“TotalEnergies will acquire a 50% equity stake in both projects from RWE. These two projects, N-9.1 (2 GW) and N-9.2 (2 GW), located 110 km off the German coast, were awarded to RWE in August 2024. Inv…”
supportsoperatorCommercial operation
source ↗
[5]
TotalEnergies2024-10-07◆ Integrated Power in Germany: TotalEnergi…
“TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with RWE to acquire a 50% stake in two offshore wind projects. These two projects, N-9.1 (2 GW) and N-9.2 (2 GW), located 110 km off the German coast, scheduled t…”
supportspartner
source ↗
[6]
RWE2024
supportsTotal capacityDistance from shore
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[10]
Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027
BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.
supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)
source ↗
Trade press3
[7]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
source ↗
[8]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[9]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Success in German offshore wind auction:…
supportsTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shoreCoordinates
source ↗