N-12.2

Part of 7 GW auction. BP bid EUR 1.56 million/MW. Grid connection target end of 2030.

Status

Early Developmentlifecycle stage

ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

OWOceanbeat West (JERA Nex bp) — 100% ◆

Location

Germany

North Sea

Verification

5/11 fields verified

9 sources · ◆ 4 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 2,000 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2023 (dynamic bidding / concession) · 2023 ·

Water depth 36–42 m ≈ Wind speed 10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Merchant ◆ Grid Offered · 2025-05 ◆ Connection TenneT NOR-12-2 cable route designated in BSH Site Development … ◆

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced 2030 ◆

COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033

expected year of commercial operation

The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2033 — 3 years later.

Chance of delivery

≈59% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2032	14.1%
2033 (expected)	28.0%
2034	22.7%
2035	14.6%
2036	8.7%
2037	5.1%
2038	3.1%
2039	1.8%
2040	1.1%
2041	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈59%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Zero-subsidy BNetzA dynamic-bidding auction (Gebotstermin 1 June 2023, results 12 July 2023), 55 bidding rounds. bp OFW Management 3 GmbH (now JERA Nex bp OFW Management 3 GmbH) bid EUR 1.56 million/MW (total EUR 3.12 billion site fee paid to the state). No EEG market premium; developer sells electricity on merchant basis. No PPA signed as of 2026-06-16. ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇

expected 2027 · planned · the round’s published documents do not name this project

indicative

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageEarly Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2030

Sources & verification

5/11 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator3

[2]

Bundesnetzagentur2023-07-12◆ Bundesnetzagentur - Presse - Ergebnisse …

“Drei Flächen für Offshore-Windparks mit einer Leistung von jeweils 2.000 MW liegen in der Nordsee ... Die Inbetriebnahme der Windparks ist für das Jahr 2030 vorgesehen. ... für die Fläche N-12.2 die B…”

supportsConsentCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismDetail+1 more

source ↗

[4]

Bundesamt fuer Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH)2025-05◆ Site Development Plan 2025: Decision on …

“BSH announced the decision on the new route of the grid connection systems NOR-11-1, NOR-11-2, NOR-12-1, NOR-12-2 and NOR-13-1 in the Site Development Plan 2025 (FEP 2025).”

supportsStatusConnection point

source ↗

[5]

Bundesnetzagentur2023

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

Auction pipeline1

[9]

Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027

BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.

supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)

source ↗