N-12.1

Part of 7 GW auction. TotalEnergies bid EUR 1.87 million/MW. Extremely distant from shore - longest connection in German waters.

Status

Early Developmentlifecycle stage

ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

TotalEnergies — 100% ◆

Location

Germany

North Sea

Verification

5/11 fields verified

10 sources · ◆ 5 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 2,000 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2023 (dynamic bidding / concession) · 2023 ·

Water depth 36–42 m ≈ Wind speed 10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Merchant ◆ Grid Offered · 2023-07-12 ◆ Connection TenneT North Sea; NOR-12-1 cable route conditionally designated … ◆

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈59% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2032	14.1%
2033 (expected)	28.0%
2034	22.7%
2035	14.6%
2036	8.7%
2037	5.1%
2038	3.1%
2039	1.8%
2040	1.1%
2041	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈59%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Zero-subsidy dynamic bidding (BNetzA July 2023); TotalEnergies (via North Sea OFW N12-1 GmbH & Co. KG) paid €1.875 mn/MW (€3.75 bn total) to win site N-12.1 — no EEG market premium, merchant operation. Electricity to be sold directly on market or via PPAs (TotalEnergies July 2023). Project renamed Nordsee Energies 1 (NSE1) October 2024. ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇

expected 2027 · planned · the round’s published documents do not name this project

indicative

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageEarly Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

5/11 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (3 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator2

[2]

Bundesnetzagentur2023-07-12◆ Bundesnetzagentur - Presse - Ergebnisse …

“für die Fläche N-12.1 die Bieterin North Sea OFW N12-1 GmbH & Co. KG zu einem Gebotswert von 1,875 Mio. Euro/MW … einer Zahlung von 3,75 Mrd. Euro für die Fläche N-12.1”

supportsConsentTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatus+2 more

source ↗

[7]

Bundesnetzagentur2023

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

Operator2

[3]

TotalEnergies2023-07-12◆ TotalEnergies Wins Two Maritime Leases t…

"Located in the North Sea, 170 kilometers off the coast, concession N-12.1 covers an area of around 200 square kilometers" with a capacity of 2,000 MW. "These wind farms will be marketed by TotalEnerg…

supportsTotal capacity

source ↗

[4]

Baltic Wind (reporting TotalEnergies announcement)2024-10-14◆ TotalEnergies renames key German offshor…

Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.

supportsFirst power

source ↗

Auction pipeline1

[11]

Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027

BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.

supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)