N-10.2
Failed auction August 2025. Combined 2.5 GW capacity with N-10.1 offered in zero-subsidy auction.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
GermanyNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
500 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ∴
Water depth
39.5–42 m ◆
Distance from shore
120 km ◆
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◇
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
The developer's last guidance was 2033 · not treated as a schedule while the project is on hold
Chance of delivery
≈16%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈16%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No award — auction received zero bids (August 2025). Re-tender expected 2027. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Sources & verification
6/14 fields verified · rests on 7 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[1]
BSH (Bundesamt fuer Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie)2025-01-28◆ BSH - Homepage - Offshore: BSH publishes…
“Investigation results ... Site N-10.2: 500 megawatts, 31 square kilometres, water depth between 39.5 and 42 metres (LAT), approximately 120 kilometres from Helgoland. Commissioning of the wind turbine…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityStatusWater depthDistance from shore
Auction pipeline1
[7]
Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027
BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.
supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)
Trade press5
[2]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2025-08-06
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[3]
Windtech International2025-08-06
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetailOfftake history
[4]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2026-01-29
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operation
[5]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[6]