Zhejiang Rui'An 1
Zhejiang Rui'An 1. GEM records phase 1 300 MW construction.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
RHRuian Hua’ou Offshore Wind Power ◇
Location
ChinaEast China Sea
Technology
Capacity
308 MW ◆
Turbines
22 × 14 MW ◆
Foundation
Jacket ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held Seabed lease · Rui'an Natural Resources and Planning Bureau · 2023-11 ◆
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.1% |
| 2030 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2031 | 22.7% |
| 2032 | 14.6% |
| 2033 | 8.7% |
| 2034 | 5.1% |
| 2035 | 3.1% |
| 2036 | 1.8% |
| 2037 | 1.1% |
| 2038 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2028–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
5/10 fields verified · rests on 2 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Zhejiang Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, for Rui'an Huaou Offshore Wind Power Co., Ltd. (public-notice draft on the Zhejiang government file host)2024-11◆ Rui'an 1 offshore wind project sea-use c…
“工程总装机容量
308MW，拟安装 22 台风力发电机组，风力发电机组单机容量为 14MW。 … 风机单机容量
由 12.5MW 变更为 14MW，台数由 24 台变更为 22 台 … 选用四桩
导管架基础作为风电机组基础方案 … 瑞安 1 号海上风电用海目前已由瑞安市自然资源和规划局采用挂牌方式出
让，由瑞安华瓯海上风电有限公司摘牌，并于 2023 年 11 月取得海域使用权证
书 … 用海期限…”
supportsSite rightsTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation
Trade press1
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Zhejiang Rui'An 1 Offshore wind farm
supportsoperatorConsentTotal capacityCoordinates