Hafrok

Shandong Bandaonan U2 (Guohua)

Shandong Bandaonan U2 (Guohua). GEM records phase 1 306 MW construction; phase 2 298 MW construction.

Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
GIGuohua Investment Shandong Guohua Shidai Investment Development ◇
Location
China
Yellow Sea
Verification
2/7 fields verified
4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆verified◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 600 MW ◆
Turbines —
Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2027 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2027
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2026: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2027: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2028: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2029: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2030: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2031: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2032: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2034: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2035: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now202728%EXPECTED20282029203020312032203320342035
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202614.1%
2027 (expected)28.0%
202822.7%
202914.6%
20308.7%
20315.1%
20323.1%
20331.8%
20341.1%
20350.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025, the slower quarter not until 2028.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2027, likely range 2025–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2024’25’26’27View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 21 Aug 2023 ◆Commercial operation 2027 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation under way
no satellite count yet: this farm is outside the tracker’s coverage so far
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

2/7 fields verified · rests on 4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[4]
威海市人民政府 (Weihai Municipal Government)2024-10-29◆ 山东半岛南U1场址二期450兆瓦项目并网，U场址实现全容量并网
“山东半岛南U场址海上风电项目总装机容量为150万千瓦，分为国家电投山东能源投资建设的 U1场址90万千瓦，国家能源集团投资建设的U2场址60万千瓦。 [EN] The Shandong Peninsula South U site offshore wind project has a total installed capacity of 1,500 MW, split into SPIC Sh…”
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
Operator1
[3]
国家能源集团 CHN Energy (来源 国华投资)2023-08-29◆ 国华投资山东U2海上风电二期项目获核准
“8月21日，国家能源集团国华投资山东分公司半岛南U2场址海上风电二期项目顺利取得核准批复。 该项目位于山东省威海市乳山市海域，场址中心离岸距离约32公里，水深30至33米，建设一座 220千伏海上升压站、一座220千伏陆上变电开关站和一座综合运维检修中心。项目分两期建设， 一期装机容量306兆瓦，拟安装36台8.5兆瓦风力发电机组；二期装机容量297.5兆瓦， 拟安装35台8.5兆瓦风力发电机组。…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
Trade press2
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Shandong Bandaonan U2 (Guohua) Offshore …
supportsoperatorFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
source ↗
[2]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] Offshore floating: are an emerging technology designed for installation in de…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗