Hafrok

Jiangsu Yancheng Offshore Wind Cluster (Phase 1)

Jiangsu remains China's largest offshore wind province with 13+ GW installed by end-2025. New cluster projects planned for 2026-2030 period.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
HUHuaneng Renewables — 100% ◇
Location
China
Yellow Sea
Verification
0/6 fields verified
5 sources · ◆ 1 document held
≈modelled◇sourced·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity —
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Application filed 2025-01 ◇ Water depth 2–9 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake Other ◇
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2027 ◇
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2027; Hafrok expects 2033 — 6 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈64% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202820302032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040 Developer-announced COD: 2027 ANNOUNCED 2027
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈64%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2025’26’27’28’29’30’31’32’33Developer-announced COD: 2027 announced COD 2027View the source for Consent appliedConsent applied Jan 2025 ◇Commercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Grid parity (no national subsidy, post-2022 China offshore wind regime). No signed offtake contract. Revenue at market price (平价上网). ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2027

Sources & verification

0/6 fields verified · rests on 5 sources · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[5]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press3
[2]
北极星电力新闻网 (Bjx.com.cn)2025-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorConsentSite rightsMechanismDetail+2 more
source ↗
[3]
北极星电力新闻网 (Bjx.com.cn)2025-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operation
source ↗
[4]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
supportsWater depth
source ↗