Hainan Wanning Floating Wind Phase 1
Located off Wanning City, southeast Hainan. PowerChina leading development. Full 1 GW project involves 200+800 MW phasing.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
POPowerChina — 100% ◇
Location
ChinaSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
200 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Water depth
73–103 m ≈
Wind speed
7.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Not recorded ◇
Connection
Wanning onshore substation ◇
Schedule
COD · announced
2026 ○
COD · Hafrok
2026 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈96%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2026 (expected) | 86.7% |
| 2027 | 13.3% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2026; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025, the slower quarter not until 2027.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2026, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under
Offtake regime of the vintage — not a recorded contract
Post-subsidy era — provincial pricing (NDRC notice 2021)
Built after the national subsidy ended. From 2021, newly approved offshore wind projects are priced by the provincial price authority — through competitive allocation where conditions allow — with no central subsidy; the grid company settles the part within the local coal benchmark price. A project approved before 2021 that connected after the 2021 deadline takes the guide price of its connection year. Provincial top-ups (Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and others) exist and are recorded on projects only where a source states them. · ◇
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation under way
no satellite count yet: this farm is outside the tracker’s coverage so far
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Expected start of operation2026
Sources & verification
1/11 fields verified · rests on 8 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press7
[2]
Global Energy Monitor2026-07-02◆ Hainan Wanning Offshore Floating wind fa…
supportsoperatorFoundationCoordinates
[3]
[4]
[5]
Enerdata2023
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOnshore constructionSite rightsStatusConnection point
[6]
China Energy News (中国能源新闻网)2022-12-22
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentConsent granted
[7]
[8]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates