Hainan CZ9 (Dongfang)

Located in Dongfang City, Hainan. Mingyang's flagship Hainan project. Annual generation ~4.95 TWh.

Status

Under Constructionlifecycle stage

DeliveringHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

MSMingyang Smart Energy — 100% ◇

Location

China

South China Sea

Verification

1/9 fields verified

6 sources

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred○unverified·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 1,500 MW ◇

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴ Water depth 22–40 m ≈ Wind speed 8.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake —

Grid —

Schedule

COD · announced 2026 ○

COD · Hafrok 2026 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈96% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A very large build, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2026 (expected)	86.7%
2027	13.3%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Construction start in 2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2024; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2023, the slower quarter not until 2025. Dates already in the past are moved up to today — this project has run beyond the typical timing.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime of the vintage — not a recorded contract

Post-subsidy era — provincial pricing (NDRC notice 2021)

Built after the national subsidy ended. From 2021, newly approved offshore wind projects are priced by the provincial price authority — through competitive allocation where conditions allow — with no central subsidy; the grid company settles the part within the local coal benchmark price. A project approved before 2021 that connected after the 2021 deadline takes the guide price of its connection year. Provincial top-ups (Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and others) exist and are recorded on projects only where a source states them. · ◇

A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.