Hainan CZ7 (CNOOC)

Located west of Dongfang City, Hainan. CNOOC leveraging offshore oil infrastructure expertise for wind development.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

CNCNOOC — 100% ◇

Location

China

South China Sea

Verification

0/10 fields verified

8 sources · ◆ 1 document held

≈modelled◇sourced·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 1,500 MW ◇

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held 2023-04 ◇ Water depth 18–31 m ≈ Wind speed 8.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake Other ◇

Grid —

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced 2029 ◇

COD · Hafrok 2029 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈71% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2028	3.9%
2029 (expected)	50.2%
2030	29.5%
2031	10.6%
2032	3.8%
2033	1.4%
2034	0.6%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025, the slower quarter not until 2028.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2025–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈71%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Grid parity (no national subsidy, post-2022 China regime) ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇

expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project

~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.