Hafrok

Guangdong Yuedong 001

Guangdong Yuedong 001. GEM records phase 1 1,700 MW construction.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SIState Power Investment Group Guangdong Power ◇
Location
China
South China Sea
Verification
1/6 fields verified
1 source · ◆ 1 document held
◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 1,700 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2029 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈90% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Financed projects (investment decision taken) complete ≈92% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2028: 8.1% (conditional on completion) 2029: 66.0% (conditional on completion) 2030: 23.7% (conditional on completion) 2031: 2.2% (conditional on completion)2026now20272028202966%EXPECTED20302031
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20288.1%
2029 (expected)66.0%
203023.7%
20312.2%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Final investment decision in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2030.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2029–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from final investment decision is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development (FID) projects that went on to complete — ≈92%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Financed projects have essentially always gone on to operate, but few have resolved since taking their investment decision — the estimate holds just below the construction-stage level rather than claiming certainty from a thin record. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈90%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28’29Commercial operation 2029 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

1/6 fields verified · rests on 1 source · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press1
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Yuedong 001 Offshore wind farm
supportsoperatorConsentFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacity+1 more
source ↗