Yangjiang Fanshi II
Yangjiang Fanshi II (阳江帆石二), the second of two 1,000 MW CGN farms south of Nanpeng Island off Yangjiang, Guangdong, and China's first commercial-scale application of 18 MW-class offshore turbines.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
ChinaSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Model
Mingyang Myse 18 X ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈96%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.0% |
| 2028 (expected) | 58.5% |
| 2029 | 26.6% |
| 2030 | 4.5% |
| 2031 | 0.5% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical build time from the construction start is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under
Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation under way
no satellite count yet: this farm is outside the tracker’s coverage so far
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
3/8 fields verified · rests on 4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
广东省生态环境厅 (Guangdong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment)2024-11-10◆ 拟对中广核阳江帆石二海上风电场项目环境影响评价文件作出批准决定的公示
“项目名称 中广核阳江帆石二海上风电场项目 建设地点 广东阳江市阳东区 建设单位 中广核新能源（阳江阳东）有限公司 项目概况 本项目规划装机总容量为1000MW， 拟布置63台16MW风电机组。我厅拟对该项目环境影响评价文件作出批准决定… 公示期5个工作日（2024年11月11日至2024年11月15日）。 [EN] Project: CGN Yangjiang Fanshi II Offshore…”
supportsoperatorTotal capacity
[2]
广东省自然资源厅 (Guangdong Provincial Department of Natural Resources)2024-09-04◆ 中广核阳江帆石二海上风电场项目用海申请公示
“项目名称 中广核阳江帆石二海上风电场项目；申请用海单位 中广核新能源（阳江阳东）有限公司； 阳江市南鹏岛南侧海域；项目拟申请用海总面积684.4547公顷；工业用海中的电力工业用海。 [EN] Project: CGN Yangjiang Fanshi II Offshore Wind Farm. Sea-use applicant: CGN New Energy (Yangjiang Yangd…”
supportsBackground
Trade press2
[3]
南方日报 (Nanfang Daily)2026-06-05◆ 全国首个18兆瓦级规模化海上风电项目首吊成功 (阳江帆石二)
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsSite rightsModel
[4]