Yangjiang Fanshi I
Yangjiang Fanshi I (阳江帆石一), the first of two 1,000 MW CGN farms south of Nanpeng Island off Yangjiang, Guangdong.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
ChinaSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◇
Turbines
73 ◇
Foundation
Jacket ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Water depth
40–48 m ◇
Distance from shore
60 km ◇
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈96%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.0% |
| 2028 (expected) | 58.5% |
| 2029 | 26.6% |
| 2030 | 4.5% |
| 2031 | 0.5% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical build time from the construction start is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under
Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation under way
no satellite count yet: this farm is outside the tracker’s coverage so far
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
0/12 fields verified · rests on 2 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press2
[1]
阳江日报 (Yangjiang Daily)2025-02-17◆ 阳江帆石一海上风电项目全面施工
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorSite rightsTurbinesTotal capacityFoundation+2 more
[2]