Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan
Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan. GEM records phase 1 500 MW construction.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ZMZhanjiang Mingyang BASF New Energy ◆
Location
ChinaSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
500 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok
2029 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2029
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈91%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Financed projects (investment decision taken) complete ≈92% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2028 | 8.1% |
| 2029 (expected) | 66.0% |
| 2030 | 23.7% |
| 2031 | 2.2% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Final investment decision in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2030.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2029, likely range 2029–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from final investment decision is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development (FID) projects that went on to complete — ≈92%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Financed projects have essentially always gone on to operate, but few have resolved since taking their investment decision — the estimate holds just below the construction-stage level rather than claiming certainty from a thin record. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈91%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
2/7 fields verified · rests on 3 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
徐闻县自然资源局 (Xuwen County Natural Resources Bureau)2025-11-13◆ 关于明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目海域使用审批前公示
“徐闻县自然资源局关于明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目海域使用审批前公示。 为广泛听取社会对项目用海的意见和建议，现对用海单位提出的海域使用申请进行审批前公示。 用海单位：湛江明阳巴斯夫新能源有限公司。项目名称：明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目。 用海位置：湛江市徐闻县锦和镇以东海域。用海年限：27年。用海面积：578.2588公顷。2025年11月13日 [EN] Xuwen Coun…”
supportsoperator
Trade press2
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan Offshore wind fa…
supportsConsentFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
[2]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] Offshore floating: are an emerging technology designed for installation in de…”
supportsFoundation