Hafrok

Guangdong Jieyang Jinghai

Guangdong Jieyang Jinghai. GEM records phase 2 400 MW construction. GEM also lists phase 1 150 MW pre-construction, not covered by this record.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
JJJieyang Jinghai Wind Power ◇
Location
China
South China Sea
Verification
2/9 fields verified
4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆verified◇sourced·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 400 MW ◆ Turbines 29 × 14 MW ◇ Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held 2022-11 ◆
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2026 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2025: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2026: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2027: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2028: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2029: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2030: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2031: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2032: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2033: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2034: 0.7% (conditional on completion)20252026now28%EXPECTED20272028202920302031203220332034
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202514.1%
2026 (expected)28.0%
202722.7%
202814.6%
20298.7%
20305.1%
20313.1%
20321.8%
20331.1%
20340.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2026; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024, the slower quarter not until 2027.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2024–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2023’24’25’26View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted 19 Nov 2022 ◆Commercial operation 2026 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

2/9 fields verified · rests on 4 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Jieyang Municipal Development and Reform Bureau2022-11-19◆ Approval of the SPIC Jieyang Jinghai 150…
“同意建设国家电投揭阳靖海150MW海上风电项目增容项目（项目代码为：2204-445224-04-01-727264）。 　　 项目单位为揭阳靖海风电有限公司。 … 本项目规划装机总容量为400MW，海域部分共建设33台12MW风机、8回66kV集电海底电缆、2回220kV海底电缆、1座220kV海上升压站和陆上升压站。 … 请揭阳靖海风电有限公司在项目开工建设前，依据相关法律、行政法规规定办理规…”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityConsent granted
source ↗
Trade press3
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Jieyang Jinghai Offshore wind …
“Guangdong Jieyang Jinghai Offshore wind farm is a wind farm in pre-construction in Jinghai, Huilai, Jieyang, Guangdong, China.”
supportsoperatorTotal capacityFoundationCoordinates
source ↗
[2]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] Offshore floating: are an emerging technology designed for installation in de…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗
[4]
Century New Energy Network (ne21.com)2024-10◆ 29 x 14 MW: SPIC Jieyang Jinghai offshor…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsTurbinesUnit capacityConsent granted
source ↗