Fujian Changle 'Outer Ocean' Area I
Fujian Changle 'Outer Ocean' Area I. GEM records phase South 314 MW construction.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
ChinaTaiwan Strait
Technology
Capacity
314 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.1% |
| 2030 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2031 | 22.7% |
| 2032 | 14.6% |
| 2033 | 8.7% |
| 2034 | 5.1% |
| 2035 | 3.1% |
| 2036 | 1.8% |
| 2037 | 1.1% |
| 2038 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2028–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
0/7 fields verified · rests on 2 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press2
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Fujian Changle 'Outer Ocean' Area I Offs…
“Fujian Changle 'Outer Ocean' Area I Offshore wind farm is a wind farm in pre-construction in Changle District, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityFoundationCoordinates
[2]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] Offshore floating: are an emerging technology designed for installation in de…”
supportsFoundation