Hafrok

Changle Outer-Sea J

Offshore-wind block won in the Fujian 2023 first-batch provincial competitive allocation (竞配). Developer (优先中选投资主体): Fujian Investment Development Group.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
China
Taiwan Strait
Verification
0/3 fields verified
3 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 650 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) · 2023 ·
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈62% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now202820302032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈62%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2024’25’26’27’28’29’30’31’32’33Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development GroupFujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) Jul 2023 · auction recordCommercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedFujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development Group 2023-07 ORIGINATIONTODAYFujian Investment Development Group Fujian Investment Devel… Fujian Investment Devel… exited 2023-07Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development Group
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

0/3 fields verified · rests on 3 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[2]
Fujian DRC (福建省发改委)2023-06◆ Fujian 2023 offshore wind market-based c…
“长乐B区（调整）10万千瓦、长乐外海I区（南）30万千瓦、长乐外海J区65万千瓦、长乐外海K区55万千瓦、莆田湄洲湾外海40万千瓦，共5个场址、200万千瓦。”
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[3]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press1
[1]
in-en.com (reporting Fujian DRC result 公示)2023-07◆ Fujian 2023 offshore wind competitive al…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗